Edmonton Oilers vs New Jersey Devils Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Connor McDavid has 30 assists and 39 points in 15 games, numbers nobody else on the Tuesday slate is close to, and Edmonton scores 4.20 goals per game. New Jersey is favored at home, but the Devils kill just 70.0 percent of their penalties against a power play converting 32.7 percent.

The Matchup

Edmonton is 11-2-2 with a plus-1.33 differential per game, scoring 4.20 goals and allowing 2.87, and the Oilers have the two best offensive players in this game by a distance. Connor McDavid has 30 assists and 39 points, a playmaking pace that warps every defensive plan against Edmonton, and Leon Draisaitl has 12 goals finishing the chances McDavid creates. Tristan Jarry has been steady in net at a 2.53 goals-against average and a .901 save percentage with two shutouts, which is all the support this offense usually needs.

New Jersey is 9-5-0 at plus-0.57, scoring 3.43 per game and allowing 2.86, and the Devils are a good team having a good season. Jack Hughes leads them with 10 assists and 16 points and Arseny Gritsyuk has 8 goals, so New Jersey can score with most teams.

Jake Allen is at a 3.11 goals-against average and an .887 save percentage in net. The Devils' problem in this specific matchup is not their record. It is the matchup between their penalty kill and Edmonton's power play, and the gap between Hughes's excellent season and McDavid's historic one.

Edmonton is missing Zach Hyman, who is on injured reserve with a neck injury, and Matt Savoie is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, while Isaac Howard is day to day with a knee injury. New Jersey lists Seamus Casey on injured reserve with a knee injury. Keep an eye on whether Howard plays before placing a bet.

Key Factors

Special teams are lopsided in a way that decides games. Edmonton converts 32.7 percent on the power play, and New Jersey kills only 70.0 percent of its penalties, so every Devils penalty is close to a one-in-three chance of a goal against. New Jersey's own power play converts 16.7 percent against an Edmonton kill of 75.6 percent, which means the Devils cannot win the trade even if the penalties even out. A home favorite with the weaker special teams and the weaker top line is a favorite built on location.

New Jersey's case is still worth stating plainly. The Devils are 9-5-0, they defend well at even strength, Hughes can take over a period, and Edmonton's defense allows enough to keep a good home team in the game. If this stays a five-on-five game with few whistles, New Jersey's structure gives the Devils a real chance.

It fails because Edmonton does not need the game to stay clean. The Oilers draw penalties with speed, their power play punishes the kill New Jersey brings, and McDavid at even strength is still the best player on the ice. Too many routes lead to Edmonton.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.