Edmonton Oilers vs New York Islanders Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Connor McDavid has 36 points in 13 games, and Saturday he skates into a building where the home team's best playmaker, Mathew Barzal, is out on injured reserve. The Islanders defend well enough to keep most games honest. Edmonton is the rare visitor whose top end can make an honest game irrelevant for long stretches.

The Matchup

Edmonton is 9-2-2 with a plus-1.00 differential, scoring 4.23 goals per game, the most on Saturday's slate. Connor McDavid has 36 points and 28 assists, and Leon Draisaitl has 12 goals, and the Oilers are doing it without Zach Hyman, who is out on injured reserve. The Islanders are 7-4-2 at plus-0.38, scoring 3.00 per game and allowing just 2.62, a genuinely good defensive profile built on structure rather than star power.

Bo Horvat leads New York with 7 goals and 14 points, and rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer has 10 assists. What the Islanders do not have Saturday is Mathew Barzal, who is out on injured reserve, along with Alexander Romanov, who is out after surgery, and Matias Maccelli and Calum Ritchie.

Ryan Pulock is day-to-day for the Islanders. Keep an eye on whether Pulock plays before placing a bet. Barzal is the one Islander who creates offense the way Edmonton does, off the rush and off broken plays, and without him New York's path narrows to set plays and second chances.

Key Factors

The power play decides whether this stays close. Edmonton converts 35.7 percent of its chances, the best mark on Saturday's slate by a wide margin, and while the Islanders kill 86.4 percent of their penalties, no kill survives repeated looks at McDavid and Draisaitl working the same unit. Edmonton's own penalty kill is its soft spot at 71.4 percent, but the Islanders' power play converts just 17.5 percent and has lost Barzal, so the weakness meets a unit poorly built to punish it.

In net, Ilya Sorokin gives the Islanders their best argument at 2.34 goals against and a .915 save percentage, clearly better numbers than Tristan Jarry's 2.95 and .889 for Edmonton, with Devon Levi out on injured reserve. Sorokin stealing this game is the honest counterpoint, and it happens often enough to respect. It still asks him to be perfect against the league's most productive player playing the best hockey of the season's first month.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.