Buffalo Sabres vs Los Angeles Kings Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Los Angeles kills just 64.9 percent of its penalties and allows 3.50 goals per game, and Saturday it hosts a Buffalo team that has steadied itself after a rough start. Neither side defends well enough to trust, which makes this a game about the one finisher who can take it over, and that player wears a Sabres sweater.

The Matchup

This is the slate's meeting of two flawed teams, and the flaws are not equal. Buffalo is 6-4-3 at minus-0.46, scoring 3.08 goals per game and allowing 3.54. Los Angeles is 4-6-2 at minus-0.67, scoring 2.83 and allowing 3.50, with a home record that has not protected it.

Tage Thompson leads Buffalo with 8 goals and 15 points, and Zach Benson has 9 assists, giving the Sabres a top line that produces even when the rest of the lineup stalls. Artemi Panarin leads Los Angeles with 8 goals and 13 points, and Alex Laferriere has 7 assists, but the Kings are without Kevin Fiala, who is out on injured reserve after surgery, and Mats Zuccarello, who is also on injured reserve.

Brandt Clarke is day-to-day for Los Angeles. Keep an eye on whether Clarke plays before placing a bet. Buffalo's absences are deeper down the lineup, with Jiri Kulich and Konsta Helenius out and Alex Lyon on injured reserve, losses that thin the Sabres without removing their best players.

Key Factors

Special teams should embarrass the home team. Los Angeles kills just 64.9 percent of its penalties, the worst mark on Saturday's slate, and Buffalo's power play, for all its inconsistency at 13.6 percent, gets looks against a unit that has failed all season.

The Kings' own power play converts 17.5 percent against a Buffalo kill at 67.4 percent, so both teams will get their chances with the extra man, and the game likely turns on which goaltender survives his own defense. Darcy Kuemper sits at 3.65 goals against and a .878 save percentage for Los Angeles, with Anton Forsberg steadier at 2.39 in fewer starts, while Buffalo splits between Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen at 3.56 and Colten Ellis at 3.11.

The honest counterpoint is place and desperation. The Kings have alternated wins and losses for two weeks without ever collapsing, Panarin can still win a game by himself, and Buffalo's defense travels poorly. If Los Angeles scores first and its crowd gets into a Saturday afternoon game, the Sabres chase in a building that suits chasing badly.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.