New York Islanders vs Nashville Predators Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Nashville's power play converts at 33.3 percent, the sharpest unit on Tuesday's slate, and it runs straight into an Islanders penalty kill at 86.1 percent and a goaltender playing at a .919 level. The Islanders allow 2.55 goals per game, so Tuesday turns on whether one great weapon can crack a stubborn defense.

The Matchup

The Islanders are built to make games small. They score 2.91 goals per game and allow 2.55, a plus-0.36 differential earned by structure, and Ilya Sorokin gives the structure a finisher. Sorokin is 5-3 with a 2.26 goals-against average and a .919 save percentage.

Bo Horvat leads New York with 12 points, young defenseman Matthew Schaefer has 10 points from the blue line, and Brayden Schenn has 8. The Islanders beat Toronto 4-1 and Anaheim 3-2 last week before a 6-3 loss at Dallas on Saturday, the one recent game that got away from their style.

Nashville is the opposite temperament. The Predators are 4-3-4, scoring 2.82 and allowing 3.00, and their last two games were a 6-0 loss to Boston and a 6-2 win over Colorado. Steven Stamkos leads Nashville with 14 points, Ryan O'Reilly has 12, and Roman Josi has 11 assists and 12 points from the back end. Juuse Saros is 3-2 at 2.82 and .908, ordinary numbers for a goalie of his reputation, and backup Justus Annunen sits at 4.00, so Nashville's crease offers no edge in this game.

Key Factors

The special-teams collision is the game. Nashville's power play converts at 33.3 percent, the best mark on Tuesday's slate, built on Stamkos's shot and Josi's distribution. The Islanders kill penalties at 86.1 percent, among the strongest units in the league, and Sorokin is the best penalty killer any team has.

At the other end, Nashville kills at 85.7 percent against an 18.2 percent Islanders power play. Both kills are good, which points to a low-event game decided at even strength, and low-event games are the Islanders' native habitat.

Availability cuts against New York, and it is the honest worry. Mathew Barzal is on injured reserve with a knee injury, removing the Islanders' most dynamic forward, and Alexander Romanov is on injured reserve after knee surgery, thinning the defense in front of Sorokin. Nashville's injury report is empty. The Islanders are also 1-3-1 on the road against 4-1-1 at home, a split that says their structure travels worse than it plays in Elmont.

The counterpoint is Nashville's volatility itself. A team that can lose 6-0 and win 6-2 in the same week can also hang four on Sorokin if Stamkos and O'Reilly get rolling early, and Bridgestone Arena at 3-2-1 has been a decent home stand. The Islanders need this game played at their pace, shift by shift, and Nashville's best players are paid to break exactly that kind of game open.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.