Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Toronto has lost five straight games and is 4-8-1 at home, and Edmonton arrives at Scotiabank Arena unbeaten in regulation on the road with Connor McDavid sitting on 49 points. The Maple Leafs did win the first meeting 7-2, which is exactly what makes Saturday interesting.

The Matchup

Edmonton is 14-3-3, scoring 4.00 goals per game and allowing 2.80, a +1.20 differential. The Oilers are 7-0-1 on the road, the only team on the Saturday slate without a regulation road loss, and they have won three straight. Connor McDavid has 11 goals, 38 assists and 49 points, and Leon Draisaitl leads Edmonton with 18 goals, so the two-man engine at the top of the lineup is producing at full power. Edmonton's one blemish in this matchup is a loud one: Toronto won the first meeting 7-2 in Edmonton on October 24.

Toronto is 8-11-2, scoring 3.29 per game and allowing 3.52 for a -0.24 differential. Auston Matthews leads the Maple Leafs with 12 goals, 17 assists and 29 points, and the talent around him is real. The form is not. Toronto has lost five straight games, is 3-7-0 in its last ten, and is 4-8-1 at Scotiabank Arena, where home ice has been no shelter at all. The Leafs lost 5-2 to Minnesota at home on Thursday, the latest in a run of games where the third period arrived with the result already leaning away from them.

Key Factors

The special teams clash is where Edmonton can separate. The Oilers convert 33.3 percent on the power play, and while Toronto kills 85.5 percent of its penalties, the Leafs' own power play at 27.1 percent runs into an Edmonton kill of 76.9 percent, so both teams will get chances with the extra man and Edmonton's unit is the more dangerous of the two. At even strength the shot numbers lean Edmonton too, with the Oilers allowing 26.9 shots a night against Toronto's 29.3 allowed.

Toronto's blue line may be thinner than usual. Morgan Rielly is day-to-day with a lower body injury. Keep an eye on whether Rielly plays before placing a bet. Colton Sissons, Kirill Marchenko and Nick Blankenburg are all out tonight on injured reserve for Toronto, and Miles Wood is out tonight on long-term injured reserve.

Edmonton's crease is the steadier one in this game: Tristan Jarry is at 2.50 and .907 and Devon Levi at 2.75 and .899, while Toronto's Sergei Bobrovsky is at 3.47 and .881 and Anthony Stolarz at 2.90 and .900. Frederik Andersen is out tonight for Edmonton. He is on the non-roster injured list with a knee injury. The Toronto case is Matthews, the 7-2 first meeting, and a home crowd waiting for a turnaround game. Five straight losses and a 4-8-1 home record say the turnaround needs more than one good night against the best road team on the slate.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.