Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Illinois opens ranked third after scoring 83.2 points a game last season. Fairleigh Dickinson lost most of its scoring and rebuilt out of the junior college ranks, which turns a 39.5-point spread into a question about pace as much as talent.

The Matchup

Illinois is a 39.5-point favorite over Fairleigh Dickinson at the State Farm Center in Champaign on Monday night, with a total of 152.5, on BTN. It is the season opener for both teams. Illinois finished 28-9 last season, scoring 83.2 points per game and allowing 68.8. Fairleigh Dickinson finished 11-21, scoring 67.2 and allowing 70.2. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Fairleigh Dickinson lost most of its scoring and rebuilt the way NEC rosters get rebuilt now, out of the junior college ranks. The name to know is Vophcy Prophete, a junior guard who averaged 15.8 points and shot 39.5 percent from three at Bishop State last season, a year after averaging 17.2 points at Reid State. He started all 33 games for Bishop State, so the Knights at least hand their offense to a guard used to carrying it, even if he has never carried it at this level.

Illinois has answers at every spot. Tomislav Ivisic and Zvonimir Ivisic give the Illini two 7-footers, Andrej Stojakovic adds scoring on the wing, and a team ranked third in the country does not lack for options behind them. The talent gap is the whole reason the spread looks like this. What the spread cannot account for is how few possessions Fairleigh Dickinson plans to give Illinois to work with.

Key Factors

Pace is the whole argument. Fairleigh Dickinson's games averaged 137.4 points last season, the profile of a team that walks the ball up and plays in the half court. The total here is 152.5, set for Illinois's preferred game. Every possession the Knights burn is one fewer chance for the margin to grow, and a 39.5-point spread in a game the underdog is actively slowing down asks the favorite to score on nearly every trip it gets.

Prophete matters more than a junior college guard should, because Fairleigh Dickinson has nobody else with his usage history. A guard who shot 39.5 percent from three against junior college defenses will not shoot that here, but he gives the Knights one player who can create a decent look late in the clock instead of donating a turnover. Against a spread this size, avoiding the avalanche runs is most of the job, and that starts with one guard who can get a shot off.

The counterpoint is the obvious one. Illinois is bigger at every position, deeper at every position, and playing at home, and Fairleigh Dickinson's rebuilt roster has never played a game together. If the Illini turn the Knights over in the backcourt and turn this into the track meet the total expects, the margin can pass 40 by halftime. The pick leans on the Knights' pace being stubborn enough, for long enough, to keep the final number under a very large one.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.