FC Bayern Munich vs Valencia Basket Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Round 11

Valencia score 95.1 points per game behind TJ Shorts, and Bayern concede a league-worst 94.5 per game. Nikola Mirotic is out, and Valencia have already won without him.

The Matchup

Valencia's Roig Arena hosts one of the league's most watchable offenses on Thursday, and Bayern Munich arrive with the defense least equipped to survive it. Valencia sit 7-3 and score in waves at home, while Bayern have won three of ten and concede more points than anyone. The subplot is Nikola Mirotic, Valencia's star forward, whose absence shapes how big this number should be.

Key Factors

Valencia score 95.1 points per game, and the engine is TJ Shorts, who averages 16.9 points and 5.6 assists while shooting 55.2 percent from the field. Armoni Brooks adds 14.9 points per game and scored 26 at Barcelona in Round 9, and Valencia's scoring forces every visitor to keep up just to stay in touch.

Bayern allow 94.5 points per game, the worst defensive mark in the league, and their own 86.8 per game will not keep pace if Valencia's guards control the game. Bayern did win 99-95 at ASVEL in Round 10, a reminder that their offense can travel on the right night. Mirotic is out on Thursday. He injured his left adductor against Fenerbahce on October 27 and has missed Rounds 9 and 10, and Valencia have confirmed he will miss this game as well.

The evidence of the last two rounds says Valencia cope without him: they won 84-73 at Milano in Round 10 and pushed Barcelona to 98-94 on the road in Round 9. Bayern reported no injured players this week, so the visitors' problem is not health. It is a defense that has to hold one of the league's highest-scoring attacks for forty minutes in a packed Roig Arena.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.