FC Juárez vs Atlético de San Luis Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Liga MX Apertura

Atlético de San Luis are thirteenth and still chasing the Liguilla play-in places when FC Juárez visit San Luis Potosí on Friday night, and the visitors arrive bottom of Liga MX with two wins all season and the worst defense in the league.

The Matchup

Atlético de San Luis sit thirteenth at 5-4-6, close enough to the Liguilla play-in places that a home game against the bottom side is one they cannot afford to waste. Their attack is spread in a way that makes them hard to plan for.

Rafa Llorente leads the side with 4 goals and a team-high 37 shots, Sebastien Salles-Lamonge has 3 goals and 2 assists, and David Rodriguez has 3 goals of his own on 35 shots, so the chances come from three different players rather than one marked man. The recent results are mixed, a 1-1 draw with Toluca followed by a 2-1 win at Querétaro and a 1-0 win over Atlante, then a 0-1 loss at Atlas, but the pattern at home is steadier than the road form and this is the softest home fixture left on their schedule.

FC Juárez are bottom at 2-2-11, with 12 goals scored and 34 conceded, the worst defensive record in the league. Almost everything they do in attack runs through Oscar Estupinan, who has 7 of those 12 goals, and when he is quiet Juárez have very little else, with Jose Luis Rodriguez next in line at 2 goals and 3 assists.

Goalkeeper Sebastian Jurado has made 66 saves, the busiest keeper in the league on these numbers, and that workload tells its own story about how much pressure this defense absorbs every week. Neither club has named its side yet. San Luis are expected to keep the back three they used at Atlas, with Llorente expected to lead the line, while Juárez are expected to stay in a back five with Estupinan expected to start up front.

Key Factors

The away split is where this game is decided. Juárez have scored 0.57 goals per match on their travels and conceded 3.00 per match, numbers that turn every away game into a siege they eventually lose. San Luis do not need to be brilliant to exploit that.

They need to be patient, keep three scorers on the pitch, and let the volume of chances do the work against a defense that has already given up 34 goals. Jurado will make saves, because he always does, but a keeper facing this much work most weeks is eventually beaten by the second or third wave rather than the first shot.

The honest counterpoint is that San Luis are not a free-scoring home side. They have scored 1.12 goals per home match, they lost 0-1 at Atlas in their last outing, and Juárez arrive off a 3-1 win at Querétaro that showed what happens when Estupinan gets service early.

If Juárez score first, San Luis have to chase a game against a back five, and that is exactly the shape of match that has frustrated them this season. San Luis have also conceded 23 goals themselves, so the clean control this pick wants is likely rather than guaranteed.

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