Florida vs Georgia Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Florida is No. 17 in the AP Top 25 and Georgia is No. 3 in the AP Top 25, and both teams have had 13 days since October 17 to prepare for this neutral-site game in Atlanta. Georgia lost at home to Auburn that day, and Florida beat Texas on the road, so neither side arrives feeling settled.
The Matchup
Florida's path runs through Jadan Baugh, because Baugh is the one Florida player Georgia has to stop on every series. Baugh has 763 yards and 13 touchdowns on 135 carries this season, and Baugh carried 25 times for 91 yards and a touchdown in the 27-24 win at Texas. Florida rushes for 194.3 yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry and scores 39.6 points per game, numbers that let the Gators stay patient instead of asking the passing game to win the day.
Tramell Jones Jr. threw 2 touchdown passes against Texas, completing 22 of 35 for 155 yards with no interceptions, and a careful Jones performance is exactly what Florida needs alongside Baugh. Georgia allows only 15.9 points per game with 22 sacks, so Florida will not move easily. The Gators do not need easy yards. Florida needs Baugh to keep Georgia honest, shorten the game, and turn red-zone trips into touchdowns the way Florida has with 20 rushing touchdowns this season.
Key Factors
Gunner Stockton makes Georgia the favorite, and Stockton's season explains why. Stockton has thrown for 1,570 yards with 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while completing 71.6 percent of his passes, and Georgia averages 9.7 yards per attempt and 53.9 percent on third down.
Stockton went 22 of 34 for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns against Auburn, but Stockton also threw 2 interceptions in that 27-24 home loss, and Georgia has given the ball away 8 times this season. Dwight Phillips Jr. ran 10 times for 68 yards against Auburn and Craig Dandridge caught 4 passes for 88 yards, so Georgia has balance at 197.7 rushing yards per game.
Florida counters with pressure, recording 22 sacks and 11 takeaways, and Florida has the scoring punch at 39.6 points per game to answer a Georgia run. Georgia wins this game if Stockton protects the ball and Georgia's defense holds Baugh near the 3.6 yards per carry Texas managed. A single Stockton turnover in a one-score game changes the math completely.
Florida can run with Baugh, who has 13 rushing touchdowns, and Florida scores 39.6 points per game, which is a lot of offense to spot double digits in a neutral-site rivalry game after a shared bye week. Our projection is Georgia 32, Florida 24. Take Florida +10.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 3:30 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | ABC |
| VENUE | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta |
| SPREAD | Georgia -10.5 |
| TOTAL | 56.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Georgia -440 |
More picks this week
Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.