UAB vs South Florida Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
UAB is 4-3 and has not played since October 15, and South Florida is 5-2 at Raymond James Stadium with a defense allowing 15.1 points per game. Both teams come in rested, and the difference is a South Florida side that has not thrown an interception all season.
The Matchup
South Florida wins games by refusing to beat itself, and the numbers are stark. South Florida quarterbacks have thrown 0 interceptions this season, and the Bulls have only 4 giveaways as a team. Michael Van Buren Jr. has thrown for 1,266 yards and 6 touchdowns, and Van Buren went 22 of 27 for 193 yards and 1 touchdown with no interceptions in the most recent game. D.J.
Crowther has rushed for 518 yards and 7 touchdowns, and Crowther carried 11 times for 42 yards in that game. Cameron Seldon caught 4 passes for 60 yards and 1 touchdown in that game. South Florida averages 26.6 points per game with 15 rushing touchdowns. UAB brings a capable passing counter.
Ryder Burton has thrown for 1,184 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and Burton went 19 of 37 for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions in the most recent game. CJ Smith caught 8 passes for 119 yards in that game, and Smith has 350 receiving yards this season. Rod Robinson II carried 8 times for 33 yards in that game and has 436 rushing yards this season. UAB averages 23.3 points per game, so the Blazers need Burton and Smith to be sharp early.
Key Factors
South Florida's defense turns a modest offense into a covering favorite. The Bulls allow 15.1 points per game with a plus 11.5 net scoring margin, while UAB allows 24.6 points per game with a minus 1.3 margin. UAB has 10 giveaways this season compared with 4 for South Florida, so Burton has to repeat his clean most recent game against a defense that held Kent State to 2 points in a 29-2 win on October 17. Rest does not separate them.
UAB last played on October 15 for 15 days before October 31, and South Florida last played on October 17 for 13 days, so both teams arrive fresh and the talent and turnover gaps decide it. The counterpoint is Burton to Smith at volume. UAB throws for 171.0 yards per game on the season but Burton just produced 262, and if Smith repeats 8 catches for 119 yards, South Florida's offense at 183.9 passing yards per game may not pull away.
South Florida also managed only 42 rushing yards from Crowther in the most recent game, so a stalled ground game keeps UAB close. Still, a home team allowing 15.1 points that never gives the ball away on interceptions is built to win by more than a touchdown.
Editorial pick: South Florida -7.5. South Florida allows 15.1 points per game, has a plus 11.5 net margin, and has thrown 0 interceptions all season behind Van Buren's 22 of 27 most recent game. Take South Florida -7.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 12:00 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | ESPNU |
| VENUE | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa |
| SPREAD | South Florida -7.5 |
| TOTAL | 42.5 |
| MONEYLINE | South Florida -305 |
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