Florida Panthers vs Chicago Blackhawks Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

Florida is the better team in this game by almost every five-on-five measure, but it arrives at the United Center with its backup in net and without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, which is a very different thing from being two goals better than anyone on the road. The Panthers should still win this game. Asking them to win it comfortably is where the case falls apart.

The Matchup

Jacob Markstrom is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, so Akira Schmid starts for the Panthers, and Schmid's season so far is 2-2-1 with a 3.62 goals-against average and an .867 save percentage. His last start, Wednesday at Ottawa, was five goals allowed on 30 shots in a 5-1 loss, and Florida followed it with a 4-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Thursday in which Cooper Black made his NHL debut.

The Panthers have scored one goal across those two games and conceded nine straight since Brady Tkachuk scored early in Ottawa. This is a team in a scoring and goaltending trough at the same time, on the road, in a Sunday matinee. Gustav Forsling is in the lineup in front of Schmid after leaving the Pittsburgh game when a puck hit him in the face. He was listed day to day, and he plays.

The absences go well beyond the crease. Barkov (knee) and Marchand (knee) are both out, which removes Florida's best two-way center and its most disruptive winger from a lineup that now leans almost entirely on one line. That line is still genuinely good. Matthew Tkachuk leads the team with 15 points (3 goals, 12 assists) and Brady Tkachuk has a team-high 7 goals, and Brady's 11 points in a five-game streak and Matthew's point in nine straight games carried Florida's three-game win streak earlier this trip.

But both streaks ended scoreless at Pittsburgh on Thursday, and with Barkov and Marchand gone there is no second wave behind them if Chicago keys on the top line. Chicago, for its part, is 3-7-0 and scores a slate-low 2.20 goals per game, but it is 3-3-0 at the United Center against 0-4-0 on the road, so the version of the Blackhawks that shows up here is the competent one.

Key Factors

The reason Florida still deserves to be backed is the shape of the play, not the margin. The Panthers generate 28.1 shots per game and allow only 24.4, while Chicago generates just 21.4 and allows 30.3, and special teams tilt the same way in both directions. Florida's power play converts at 19.2 percent against a 76.7 percent Chicago kill, with Matthew Tkachuk driving that unit, while Chicago's 10.3 percent power play, the weakest on the Sunday slate, runs into an 82.6 percent Florida kill.

Chicago's own net is no refuge either, which matters when the question is who blinks first in a low-trust goaltending game. Spencer Knight starts for the Blackhawks at 3-5-0 with a 3.52 goals-against average and an .888 save percentage, with Arvid Soderblom backing up, and Knight is not a goalie who steals games behind this team. Defenseman Bowen Byram (upper body) misses a fourth straight game in front of him.

The counterpoint is exactly why this pick is the moneyline and not the puck line. Connor Bedard, back after missing the first six games, has 2 goals and 2 assists in four games and scored Chicago's lone goal Friday against Montreal in 20:06 of ice time, set up by Patrick Kane, who sits three assists short of 900 for his career.

If Bedard and Kane turn one period, Schmid is not a goalie you trust to protect a lead, let alone build a two-goal cushion behind a team in this kind of scoring trough. A one-goal Florida win, or even a Chicago win in a sloppy matinee, is a very live outcome. What is not supported by the actual lineup is Florida winning by two on the road with a backup in net and two top forwards in the press box, so the margin requirement comes off and the side stays.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.