Florida Panthers vs Winnipeg Jets Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Winnipeg has lost five straight, scoring nine goals across the five, and every one of the losses came by a goal or two. Florida arrives scoring 2.83 goals per game with Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand both on injured reserve, so Tuesday tests which short-handed offense breaks first.

The Matchup

Winnipeg's season has narrowed to one player. Kyle Connor has 9 goals and 12 points, a third of the Jets' entire goal output on a team scoring 2.45 per game, and behind him Cole Perfetti has 9 points and Mark Scheifele has 8. The Jets have lost five straight, to Chicago in overtime, Carolina, St. Louis, Dallas in overtime, and Montreal, scoring 3, 2, 1, 2 and 1 goals.

Every loss was close, which cuts both ways. Winnipeg is not getting blown out. It is getting exactly one goal too few, every night. Stuart Skinner has held up his end at 3-2 with a 2.60 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage in eight starts.

Florida is volatile in the other direction. The Panthers are 6-4-2, scoring 2.83 and allowing 3.00, and their last five include an 8-3 win over Seattle and a 4-0 loss to Pittsburgh. Matthew Tkachuk leads Florida with 16 points on 4 goals and 12 assists, Brady Tkachuk has 7 goals and 12 points, and Seth Jones has 11 assists from the blue line. The two Tkachuks give Florida a net-front presence Winnipeg's defense has to survive shift after shift, and Florida is 4-3-2 on the road, comfortable away from home.

Key Factors

The injury lists are long on both sides, and Florida's names are bigger. Aleksander Barkov is on long-term injured reserve with a lower-body injury, Brad Marchand is on injured reserve with a leg injury, and starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, which leaves the net to Akira Schmid at 3.34 and .872.

Winnipeg counters with Josh Morrissey on injured reserve with a wrist injury, a real loss for its transition game, plus Vladislav Namestnikov on injured reserve and Nick Bjugstad on long-term injured reserve after pectoral surgery. Both teams are playing a lesser version of themselves.

Special teams give Florida the cleaner edge that remains. The Panthers kill penalties at 84.9 percent against a Winnipeg power play at 19.4 percent, and Florida's 19.6 percent power play runs at an 80.8 percent Jets kill. In a game between two offenses this dry, the one power-play goal either way is likely to stand up, and Florida has the better kill to protect it.

The counterpoint is that Winnipeg is due in the most literal sense. Five one-goal losses with a .911 goaltender is a team playing better than its results, Skinner has outplayed Schmid by a wide margin this season, and Canada Life Centre is a hard building when the home team scores first. If Connor gets his goal early and the crowd wakes up, Florida's missing stars become the story. The Panthers need their remaining top end to be efficient, because the depth that usually wins these games is in the press box.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.