Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Both teams are 8-3, Stephen Curry is scoring at the top of the league, and Golden State just won a game by 51 points on Sunday. The tension at Toyota Center is whether Houston's size and depth can slow the one shooter who has bent every defense he has seen this season.

The Matchup

Houston is 8-3, scores 115.5 points per game and allows 106.4, and the Rockets lost 110-100 at home to Denver on Sunday. Alperen Sengun leads Houston at 21.3 points, 7.8 assists and 9.0 rebounds per game, a center leading his team in all three lines. Houston's own center depth is thin behind him. Clint Capela is out with a sprain in his right ankle and Steven Adams is out with a strain in his right calf.

Golden State is 8-3, scores 120.4 and allows 111.2, and the Warriors have won five straight, the last a 138-87 win over New Orleans on Sunday. Stephen Curry leads Golden State at 30.6 points per game, Draymond Green leads the team at 7.6 assists, and Yaxel Lendeborg leads the glass at 7.2 rebounds. The Warriors' report is long. Gary Payton II is out with inflammation in his left knee, Kristaps Porzingis is out with an illness, and Moses Moody is out after surgery on his left knee.

Both teams have played eleven games, so these are this season's numbers with nothing carried over. DraftKings makes Houston a 5.5-point home favorite at Toyota Center, with a total of 223.5 and the Rockets at -197 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Curry is the first factor. He is scoring 30.6 points per game, Golden State's offense bends toward him on every possession, and Houston's perimeter defense has to chase him through screens for four quarters while Sengun anchors a paint with no backup center behind him. One foul-trouble night for Sengun and Houston's whole structure wobbles.

Houston's counter is real. The Rockets are the better defensive team in this game, they are bigger at every spot, and Sengun against a Warriors frontcourt missing Porzingis is a matchup Houston wins on paper. Golden State's five straight wins also came against a soft stretch of schedule, and Houston at home is a step up from New Orleans and Orlando.

The total tells the scoring story. These teams combine for far more than the posted number suggests on recent form, Golden State especially, and high-scoring games between good teams tend to stay within one run of each other late. Houston may well win. Asking the Rockets to win clear, against the hottest shooter in the league, is the part the price gets wrong.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.