Grambling Tigers vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Grambling has played once, won a thriller, and had a week to prepare for Austin. Texas has won its two games by a combined 98 points, and Monday asks whether that roll survives a rested visitor with one genuine scorer.

The Matchup

Grambling visits Texas on Monday evening at the Moody Center in Austin, on SEC Network, with Texas a 35.5-point favorite, a total of 152.5, and no moneyline posted for either side. Texas is 2-0 and ranked No. 7 in the AP Top 25. Grambling is 1-0 and has not played in a week.

Texas has spent its first two games running people off the floor, beating Chicago State 109-59 and Gardner-Webb 98-50 for 103.5 points a game and just 54.5 allowed. Matas Vokietaitis leads the Longhorns at 19.0 points and 6.5 rebounds a game, and Austin Goosby leads Texas at 5.5 assists a game, a sign the ball is not sticking even in blowouts. Last season Texas went 18-14, scored 83.8 points a game and allowed 76.8, a good offensive team whose defense gave points back against real competition.

Grambling's whole season so far is one game, an 89-87 win over Northern Illinois on November 2, and it was a loud one. Isaiah Miranda scored 29 points and pulled down 8 rebounds in that win, and Dwayne Pierce handed out 8 assists, so the Tigers arrive with a scorer in form and a guard who found him.

Last season Grambling went 14-19, scored 70.3 points a game and allowed 70.1, an even team that played a lot of close games. One game against Northern Illinois says little about how Grambling handles Texas size, and the Tigers know it, but a full week since that game means they come to Austin with a plan and fresh legs rather than on the second night of a road swing.

Key Factors

Vokietaitis is the matchup problem Grambling has to solve first. A Texas big leading his team in both scoring and rebounding at 19.0 points and 6.5 rebounds a game means the Tigers cannot simply load up on the perimeter, and every Grambling foul spent on him puts Texas on the line in a game where the favorite needs margin, not just a win. How long Grambling can guard him without its frontcourt sitting down decides whether this stays a game into the second half.

The counterpoint is right there in Texas's first two finals, and it is a strong one. The Longhorns won by 50 and by 48, and a team that has already produced two margins bigger than this spread does not need a career night to produce a third. If Texas defends the way it did in those games, holding both opponents to 59 points or fewer, Grambling's one-game offense will not score enough to keep this inside the number, and Miranda will see a second defender on every catch.

Grambling's case rests on pace and on that week of rest. The Tigers scored 89 points in their opener with Pierce dealing 8 assists, so they can put points up when the game opens up, and a total of 152.5 says the market expects an open game on Monday.

An open game helps the underdog cover a huge number, because possessions pile up for both sides and the favorite has to keep scoring to pull away. Texas allowed 76.8 points a game last season, and if Grambling's guards get downhill the way they did against Northern Illinois, the Tigers can trade enough baskets to make 35.5 points feel very large late in a settled game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.