Holy Cross Crusaders vs Villanova Wildcats Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Villanova won 24 games last season and plays its home opener laying a huge number. Holy Cross just lost its opener by 44 points. The question Friday is not who wins. It is how long the Crusaders can stay organized.

The Matchup

Holy Cross visits Villanova on Friday evening at Finneran Pavilion in Villanova, on ESPN+, with Villanova a 31.5-point favorite and a total of 151.5. Both teams are 0-1, and both lost their openers away from home. The similarities end there, because the gap between a Big East program and a Patriot League program is the whole story of this spread.

Villanova finished 24-9 last season, scoring 77.1 points a game and allowing 71.2. Holy Cross finished 11-22, scoring 68.2 and allowing 73.3. Those lines describe last season, and each team has played once since. The openers cut in opposite directions for the favorite: Villanova lost a close one, 74-72, to Notre Dame at a neutral site in Rome, while Holy Cross lost 103-59 at Rhode Island, a game that was never competitive.

A number this big is rarely about who is better. Villanova is better, clearly. It is about whether a favorite keeps its foot down for forty minutes in a home opener, and whether a road team that just got run off the floor can hold its shape long enough to keep the margin honest.

Key Factors

Holy Cross has one thing it can lean on, and it showed up even in the Rhode Island loss: the ball handling of its guards. Kole Hanson scored 11 points against Rhode Island, went 3-of-6 from three, handed out 5 assists and did not turn the ball over once in 24 minutes.

Chuck Hare gave the Crusaders an inside presence with 10 points and 8 rebounds on 3-of-5 shooting. A big underdog does not cover a number like this by outscoring the favorite. It covers by valuing possessions, making the favorite work in the half court, and avoiding the live-ball turnovers that turn a 20-point game into a 40-point game.

Villanova's own opener is the quiet argument for the points. The Wildcats scored 72 points against Notre Dame, and while Tyler Perkins scored 18 and Devin Royal added 5 with 8 rebounds, this was not an offense that buried a comparable opponent early. Villanova allowed 74 points in that game, and its first game back home after opening the season in Rome is a spot where a favorite can play a clean, comfortable, unspectacular game and win by 24 without ever threatening this spread.

The counterpoint is obvious and it deserves to be stated plainly. Holy Cross allowed 103 points on Tuesday and lost by 44, and Villanova has the size and depth to do the same thing if the Crusaders' shots stop falling and the game speeds up.

Perkins and Royal can overwhelm a smaller frontcourt, and a home crowd smelling a rout can push a favorite's bench to keep scoring late. The bet is that Holy Cross's guard play keeps this from becoming a track meet, and that 31.5 points is simply more margin than a methodical home opener usually produces.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.