Illinois Fighting Illini vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 3 Illinois has scored 232 points in two games. No. 19 Texas Tech has allowed 100. Tuesday night in Lubbock, one of those starts meets its first real test, and the Illini are laying 1.5 on the road.

The Matchup

No. 3 Illinois visits No. 19 Texas Tech on Tuesday night at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, on Peacock, with Illinois a 1.5-point road favorite, a total of 161.5, and the Illini priced at -135 on the moneyline against Texas Tech at +114. Both teams are 2-0, and neither has been pushed yet.

Illinois has been an avalanche. The Illini beat Fairleigh Dickinson 120-45 and Penn 112-70, and Andrej Stojakovic leads them at 22.5 points a game, with Ethan Brown adding 9.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists a game. Texas Tech has won the opposite way, beating Jackson State 76-42 and Bethune-Cookman 76-58 behind Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn at 15.0 points a game, Josiah Moseley at 8.5 rebounds a game, and Cruz Davis at 4.0 assists a game.

Last season is the steadier guide to what these teams are, because two games against overmatched visitors can flatter anyone. Illinois finished 24-8 last season, scoring 84.4 points a game and allowing 69.8. Texas Tech finished 22-10, scoring 80.4 and allowing 72.6. The Illini were the better team on both ends, which is what makes this short road number interesting: last season's Illinois core is largely gone, Stojakovic arrived as the new lead scorer, and Brown is running the offense now, so the 2-0 start is a new team announcing itself rather than an old one picking up where it left off. Lubbock is still the first building this season that will push back.

Key Factors

Start with the scoring gap. Illinois put up 120 and 112 in its first two games, and even on last season's steadier numbers the Illini profile as the stronger offense in this game. Texas Tech's defense has allowed 42 and 58 points so far, but Jackson State and Bethune-Cookman do not stress a defense the way Stojakovic and Brown do, with Brown creating from the frontcourt at 6.0 assists a game.

The total of 161.5 tells you what the market expects from Illinois's pace. If the Illini dictate the tempo, Texas Tech has to score in the 80s to stay close, and the Red Raiders have scored 76 in both of their games. Gibbs-Lawhorn is a real scorer, and Moseley gives Texas Tech second chances on the glass, but the Red Raiders' path runs through slowing the game down, and nothing in their first week shows an offense built to trade baskets with this Illinois team.

The honest counterpoint is the building. United Supermarkets Arena is one of the hardest road stops in the Big 12, Texas Tech went 22-10 last season with a defense that allowed 72.6 a game, and Illinois has not faced a crowd or a defense like this yet. If the Red Raiders turn this into a half-court grind and the Illini's shots stop falling on the road, a 1.5-point spread flips fast. The bet is that Illinois's scoring depth travels better than Texas Tech's untested defense holds up.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.