Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Brooklyn is 0-5, and the losses keep arriving the same way, with 121.2 points allowed per game doing most of the explaining. Indiana is 2-4 and hardly airtight itself, yet the Pacers can score in bunches, and a home game against this defense is exactly the kind a scoring team has to bank.

The Matchup

Indiana is 2-4, and nobody should pretend the Pacers are a finished product. They score 116.7 points per game and allow 119.8, they lost 145-125 at Miami on Friday, and they dropped their home game against Philadelphia 114-109 on Wednesday.

Tyrese Haliburton runs one of the fastest offenses in the league, Pascal Siakam gives them a second creator who can score inside, and Andrew Nembhard steadies the backcourt next to Haliburton. Indiana went 19-63 last season, so this is a rebuild with real offensive talent at the top and very little margin behind it.

Brooklyn is 0-5, the worst start on this slate, and the defense is the reason. The Nets score 110.2 points per game and allow 121.2, and they lost 110-94 at home to Detroit on Friday, a game that was not as close as the building hoped.

Michael Porter Jr. can score, Julius Randle gives them a physical frontcourt option, and Terance Mann works at both ends, but the pieces do not add up to stops. Brooklyn went 20-62 last season, and nothing in this start says the floor has risen. Egor Demin is out with a leg bruise, with a return expected around November 7, and Tyler Bilodeau and Mikel Brown Jr. are also out for the Nets.

DraftKings makes Indiana a 4.5-point home favorite at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, with the Pacers at -175 on the moneyline and a total of 230.5.

Key Factors

Indiana's injury list is the first thing to price in, and it is not short. Ivica Zubac is out for this game. He sprained his left ankle, and he is expected back on November 2, which leaves Jay Huff and Larry Nance Jr. to hold the middle. T.J.

McConnell is out with a hamstring strain, also with a return expected on November 2, and that thins the backup guard minutes behind Haliburton. Aaron Nesmith is day-to-day with a hamstring strain and Obi Toppin is day-to-day with back soreness, both listed with a return date of November 1. Keep an eye on whether Nesmith and Toppin play before placing a bet, because Indiana's wing rotation looks very different without them.

Even short in the middle, Indiana's problem in this game is smaller than Brooklyn's. The Nets allow more points than any team on this slate, they have not held a single opponent in check through five games, and their own offense depends on Porter creating against set defenses.

Haliburton pushes pace after makes and misses alike, and a defense that cannot get back or get set is the worst possible match for that style. Brooklyn will score here, because Indiana lets everybody score. The question is whether the Nets can score enough, for four quarters, to beat a team that creates easier shots than they do.

That is also why the moneyline is the honest version of this bet. Indiana's defense is too leaky to trust with a spread, because a team allowing 119.8 points per game can win a game it controlled and still give the points back in the last three minutes. Asking the Pacers to simply beat a winless team at home is a different and fairer ask, and it is the one their talent supports.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.