Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Memphis is 5-0 and winning with defense, allowing 106.2 points per game, while Sacramento is 0-5 and allowing 126.8. Both teams played last night, only one of them had to fly afterward, and Domantas Sabonis and his 16.2 rebounds per game are the reason this winless team never quite goes away.

The Matchup

Memphis is 5-0, the last unbeaten team on this slate, and the Grizzlies are winning with defense. They score 118.2 points per game and allow 106.2, a profile nobody expected from a team that went 25-57 last season. Ty Jerome leads Memphis at 25.8 points per game, and Cameron Boozer leads the team at 6.2 assists and 10.8 rebounds per game. Memphis beat Portland 124-103 in this building last night, so the confidence is not theoretical.

Sacramento is 0-5, and the defense has been a layup line. The Kings score 110.2 points per game and allow 126.8, the worst defensive mark on this slate, after a 22-60 season last year. Zach LaVine leads Sacramento at 26.0 points per game, and Domantas Sabonis leads the team at 7.2 assists and a remarkable 16.2 rebounds per game.

Sabonis is the reason Sacramento is dangerous even while winless. A center who ends that many possessions and starts the break himself keeps his team in games its defense should have already lost.

Sacramento's injury list is long. Keegan Murray is out with an ankle injury and is not expected back until November 6, Dylan Cardwell is out with a calf strain, Maxime Raynaud is out with a dislocated knee, and Ben Simmons is out after Achilles surgery. Memphis has its own worry, and it sits in the backcourt.

Jerome is day-to-day with back soreness, with a return date listed as today, and Scotty Pippen Jr. is day-to-day with back soreness as well. Keep an eye on whether Jerome plays before placing a bet, because Memphis's offense runs through him. DraftKings makes Memphis a 10.5-point favorite at FedExForum, with a total of 234.5 and the Grizzlies at -440 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Both teams played last night, but only one of them traveled. Sacramento lost 132-120 in New Orleans and flew in, while Memphis stayed home. A double-digit spread asks the favorite to sustain its defensive intensity for a second straight night, and that is the first thing tired legs give back. Sacramento's path is narrow but real. LaVine scores enough to trade baskets for long stretches, and Sabonis on the glass shortens the game by ending Memphis possessions after one shot.

The honest counterpoint is Sacramento's defense. A team allowing 126.8 points per game does not get to complain about a bad matchup, and Memphis has the balance to punish it from five spots.

If Jerome plays and looks like himself, Memphis can push this past the number by halftime and turn the fourth quarter into rest for its starters. Sacramento's cover needs the game to stay whole into the fourth quarter, with Sabonis winning the glass and LaVine keeping the Kings' offense close enough that Memphis feels the back-to-back late.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.