La Salle Explorers vs Villanova Wildcats Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Villanova and La Salle share a city and little else right now. The Wildcats are favored by 23.5 at Finneran Pavilion, and La Salle arrives off an 88-point night at home and a 39-point loss at Houston in the same week.

The Matchup

Villanova hosts La Salle on Tuesday night at Finneran Pavilion in Villanova, on truTV, with Villanova a 23.5-point favorite, a total of 156.5, and the Wildcats priced at -8,000 on the moneyline against La Salle at +2,200. It is a Philadelphia rivalry game, and the spread says the rivalry part is doing all the work. Both teams are 1-1.

Villanova lost 74-72 to Notre Dame in its opener on November 1, then beat Holy Cross 95-66 at home on November 7. The Wildcats have scored 83.5 points a game and allowed 70.0, and the scoring is spread out: Devin Royal leads the team at just 13.5 points a game. Elijah Crawford runs the offense at 6.5 assists a game, and Luigi Suigo anchors the glass at 10.0 rebounds a game. Royal, Crawford, and Suigo are all active with no injury designations.

La Salle's week has swung wildly. The Explorers lost 94-55 at Houston on November 3, then came home and beat Long Island University 88-80 on November 7. Kam Burton leads them at 13.0 points a game, Rob Dockery hands out 3.5 assists a game, and Bowyn Beatty leads them on the glass at 7.5 rebounds a game. Burton, Dockery, and Beatty are all active with no injury designations. La Salle has scored 71.5 points a game and allowed 87.0, and that second number is the whole concern.

Last season sets the real gap. Villanova went 24-9, scoring 77.1 points a game and allowing 71.2, a top-three Big East team. La Salle went 9-23, scoring 67.1 and allowing 74.1. Nobody is confusing the two programs. The question Tuesday is only about the size of the margin in a building where Villanova just won by 29.

Key Factors

Villanova's balance is the reason this number is hard to cover, and it is worth saying plainly. When a team's leading scorer averages 13.5 points a game, its margins come from defense and depth rather than one star burying an opponent in a ten-minute run.

The Wildcats allowed 70.0 points a game through two, and their normal path to a win here is a steady squeeze: Crawford controlling the game at 6.5 assists a night, Suigo finishing possessions on the glass, and the lead growing a few points at a time. A steady squeeze can absolutely win by 24. It just has less margin for a flat stretch than a star-driven blowout does.

La Salle's one useful trait is that it can score in bunches when Burton gets going, and 88 points against Long Island University, one game after the Houston humiliation, says the Explorers did not fold. In a rivalry game, with a total of 156.5 promising possessions, an underdog that keeps scoring keeps the back door open into the final minutes, when a favorite up 20 is thinking about Thursday.

The honest counterpoint is La Salle's defense, which has allowed 87.0 points a game and gave up 94 to Houston. Villanova scored 95 on Holy Cross in this building, and if Crawford carves up the Explorers the way Houston's guards did, the squeeze becomes a rout before halftime and 23.5 is gone.

La Salle also has no answer for Suigo inside if Beatty gets into foul trouble. The bet is that familiarity and scoring keep the Explorers inside a very large number, not that they belong on the floor with Villanova for 40 minutes.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.