Louisiana Tech vs South Alabama Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Louisiana Tech arrives in Mobile on three straight wins and two straight shutouts, and South Alabama has had 10 days to sit with a 20-13 loss at Marshall. The tension is whether a home offense that scores 35.1 points per game can crack a defense that just blanked Old Dominion 26-0.
The Matchup
South Alabama does its damage on the ground, and that is where Louisiana Tech has to prove the shutouts travel. The Jaguars rush for 214.3 yards per game and have scored 19 rushing touchdowns, with Keenan Phillips carrying the load at 514 yards and 5 touchdowns on 96 carries. Phillips ran 16 times for 70 yards against Marshall, and South Alabama does not need Jared Hollins to be perfect when the run game sets the terms.
Hollins has thrown for 1,003 yards and 7 touchdowns, and Brendan Jenkins gives Hollins a real downfield target at 430 yards on 25 catches, including 4 catches for 75 yards against Marshall with a long of 47. Louisiana Tech allows 21.0 points per game, a strong number built in part on those last two shutouts against UL Monroe and Old Dominion. South Alabama is a different test at home, because the Jaguars score 35.1 points per game and can stay balanced instead of chasing the game through the air.
Key Factors
Blake Baker is the reason Louisiana Tech is favored, and Baker is playing clean football. Baker has completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,160 yards with 10 touchdowns and only 1 interception, and Baker went 28 of 34 for 303 yards and a touchdown in the 26-0 win over Old Dominion.
Andrew Burnette added 20 carries in that game, though Burnette managed only 63 yards at 3.2 yards per carry, and Louisiana Tech averages a modest 4.1 yards per carry as a team. South Alabama allows 32.4 points per game, so Baker will find yards, and that is the honest risk here. The counterweight is rest and place.
South Alabama last played on October 20, giving the Jaguars 10 days before kickoff while Louisiana Tech played on October 24, and Hancock Whitney Stadium is a tough spot for a road favorite that wins with efficiency rather than explosion. If Phillips keeps South Alabama ahead of the chains, Hollins only needs a handful of Jenkins plays to keep this inside one score.
Editorial pick: South Alabama +5.5 at -110. South Alabama rushes for 214.3 yards per game with 19 rushing touchdowns, and that ground game at home shortens the game against a Louisiana Tech team that averages 4.1 yards per carry. Baker beats this pick if Baker repeats the 303-yard, no-interception day from the Old Dominion win and turns South Alabama mistakes into a two-score lead. Take South Alabama +5.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 3:00 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | ESPN+ |
| VENUE | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile |
| SPREAD | Louisiana Tech -5.5 |
| TOTAL | 57.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Louisiana Tech -205 |
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Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.