Manchester United vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Premier League

Liverpool host Manchester United at Anfield on Sunday with the rivalry carrying weight at both ends of the table, Liverpool fourth and chasing the leaders while Manchester United sit eighteenth and need points to climb out of the bottom three, and Manchester United arrive having won both league meetings between the clubs last season, including the match at Anfield.

The Matchup

Liverpool welcome Manchester United to Anfield on Sunday in the fixture that still stops the Premier League weekend, and this one carries pressure at both ends of the table. Liverpool sit fourth on 18 points after a 5-3-2 start, nine points behind leaders Arsenal, and cannot keep giving ground away at home. Manchester United sit eighteenth on 8 points with a 1-5-4 record, inside the bottom three and a point behind seventeenth placed Coventry City, and they arrive at the ground where they won last season.

Liverpool's season splits in a way that shapes this whole match. Away from home they have been excellent, winning four of five and scoring 10 goals, but at Anfield they have won only one of five, drawn with Nottingham Forest and Fulham, and lost to Manchester City and Arsenal, scoring 4 goals across those five home matches and failing to score in three of them. Alexander Isak remains the clear focal point, with 7 goals in 9 appearances, half of Liverpool's 14 league goals, on a team high 25 shots.

Florian Wirtz has added 1 goal and 3 assists in 10 appearances, Cody Gakpo has 3 assists in 8 appearances, and Virgil van Dijk's 593 accurate passes set the tempo from the back, but the supporting scoring has not travelled to Anfield. The recent league run is three wins in five, a 3-1 win at Crystal Palace and a 2-1 win at Brentford either side of home defeats, with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded across the five.

Manchester United bring the opposite problem. They have scored 14 league goals, the same number as Liverpool, but they have conceded 19 in 10 matches, and goalkeeper Senne Lammens has already made 32 saves behind a defense that rarely gives him a quiet afternoon. Bryan Mbeumo has 4 goals in 10 appearances on 30 shots, Bruno Fernandes has 4 goals and 2 assists in 9 appearances on a team high 31 shots, and Matheus Cunha has 1 goal and 2 assists, so the threat is real when United get forward.

It just has not appeared often enough on the road, where United are winless in five, with three draws and two defeats, 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their last five league matches brought no win at all, three draws and two defeats with 11 goals conceded, and the 4-4 draw with Aston Villa last time out showed both halves of their season in one afternoon.

Neither club has named its side yet. Liverpool are expected to stay close to the team that won at Crystal Palace, with Alisson Becker in goal, Virgil van Dijk and Jérémy Jacquet in defense, and Alexander Isak leading the line with Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo and Bradley Barcola behind him, all expected to start. Manchester United are expected to keep the shape that drew with Aston Villa, Senne Lammens in goal behind Harry Maguire and Leny Yoro, with Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha expected to start in the attacking places.

Key Factors

The shape of this game is set by what each side needs from it. Liverpool need the win for the title race and will own the ball and the territory, but owning games at Anfield has not meant opening them up this season, and a United side sitting eighteenth gets real value from a point in a way a title contender never does.

United's away season has settled into a pattern of level, low scoring afternoons, with draws at Everton, Fulham and Leeds United and defeats at Hull City and Chelsea, and four of their five away matches finished with exactly two goals. Liverpool's five home matches have produced 10 goals in total. Put those two habits together and the afternoon points toward patience, territory and long spells of Liverpool pressure against a set defense rather than an open trade of chances.

The honest counterpoint is this fixture's recent history, and it is a strong one. Manchester United won both league meetings last season, winning 2-1 at Anfield and 3-2 at Old Trafford, and those two matches produced eight goals between them.

United raise their level for this game in a way their league position does not explain, Fernandes and Mbeumo carry United's scoring this season, and a side that scored four against Aston Villa last time out can wreck a low scoring read with one fast start. An early goal either way is what beats this pick, because it forces the trailing side out of its shape and turns a territorial game into a chase.

What holds the read together is how stubborn the underlying home and away patterns have been across the full season rather than a single week. Liverpool have played five home matches and scored in only two of them, and the blank afternoons came against sides who arrived to defend first.

United have played five away matches without winning one and have scored more than once on the road only at Everton. Neither pattern promises a classic, whatever the badge on the fixture says, and the rivalry's history is the reason to respect the risk rather than the reason to abandon the evidence of this season.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.