Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

Third-seeded New England Revolution host sixth-seeded Philadelphia Union at Gillette Stadium in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Round One series, four weeks after New England won at Philadelphia in a match that cost the Union their top scorer.

The Matchup

The Eastern Conference Round One opens at Gillette Stadium on Saturday afternoon with a tie that has already swung once. New England Revolution finished third in the East with 58 points from an 18-4-12 season, Philadelphia Union took sixth with 50 points at 14-8-12, and this best-of-three series starts four weeks after New England went to Philadelphia and won 2-1.

Dor Turgeman put the visitors ahead in first-half stoppage time that day, Carles Gil converted a penalty in the first minute of added time at the end, and Neil Pierre's header deep in stoppage time only made the finish nervous. Game 2 is at Philadelphia on November 28, and a deciding Game 3 would come back to Foxborough on December 2, so the home side knows a fast start puts the whole series on its own terms.

New England's case starts with how hard they are to play in this building. The Revolution went 11-2-4 at home, scoring 31 goals and conceding 20, and the attack runs through Gil, the captain, who scored 13 goals with 12 assists across all 34 matches and completed 1,878 accurate passes, the most on the team by a wide margin. Turgeman gives that control a finish.

He has 12 goals and 7 assists on a team-high 75 shots, and his recent form is live, with a goal in the win at Philadelphia and two more in the 3-2 win over Red Bull New York in the last five. Dániel Gazdag scored against New York and against Inter Miami CF in the same run, and Matt Turner made 138 saves across the season behind a defense that rarely gives a game away at home.

Philadelphia bring the louder attack and the leakier road record, and both halves of that sentence matter. The Union scored 66 goals this season, and their away split is extreme, with 34 goals scored in 17 road matches and 33 conceded in the same 17. Bruno Damiani has 13 goals and scored in two of the last five, and Cavan Sullivan has become a real second threat, with 9 goals and 11 assists this season and two goals in the 4-1 win over Toronto FC that closed the regular season.

His brother Quinn Sullivan added a penalty in that game and has 8 assists in 19 appearances. What Philadelphia may not have is the finisher who carried them. Milan Iloski, their top scorer with 19 goals on a team-high 121 shots, strained a hamstring late in that October defeat against New England and has not played since.

Neither club has named its side yet. New England are expected to keep the side that started at Orlando City SC on November 7, Turner in goal behind Mamadou Fofana and Ethan Kohler, with Gil, Jackson Yueill and Matt Polster in midfield and Turgeman expected to start up front with Gazdag and Luca Langoni. Peyton Miller, who has 7 goals and 9 assists this season, is a doubt for New England after a training knock kept him out of the finale, with a reported absence of about two weeks putting his return right on this date.

Philadelphia are expected to stay with the side that beat Toronto, Andre Blake in goal, Damiani leading the line and the Sullivan brothers expected to start, while Iloski remains a doubt after missing three straight matches. He was upgraded to questionable for the Toronto game but did not make the squad, and Philadelphia have offered no firmer word since.

Key Factors

The last five matches leave both sides with something to prove. New England won three straight in October, beating Chicago Fire FC 1-0 at home, winning at Philadelphia and outlasting New York 3-2, then closed with two defeats, 2-1 at home to Inter Miami and 1-0 at Orlando, where they were held scoreless.

Philadelphia drew 2-2 with Charlotte FC, lost the New England match, ground out a scoreless draw at Nashville SC and lost 1-0 at FC Cincinnati before the 4-1 Toronto win restored some belief. Both clubs scored 7 goals and conceded 6 across those five, and both have had 14 days since their last match, so freshness is level and the series opener should be played at full speed from the start.

The honest counterpoint is Philadelphia's away attack, because it is good enough to wreck this read on its own. A side that scores 34 goals in 17 road matches does not come to Foxborough to survive, and New England's last two home matches offered encouragement to any visitor, with two goals conceded to New York and a 2-1 defeat against Miami.

If Iloski makes it back, Philadelphia regain the one finisher in this tie who has punished defenses all season, and a Union side that trades chances happily could turn Game 1 into exactly the open game the home defense least wants. Miller's doubt cuts the other way for New England too, because his running on the left is part of how the Revolution stretch a back line.

What tilts the tie back toward the hosts is where Philadelphia's road games are actually lost. The Union concede almost two goals a match away from home, and they do it against a New England side that controls long stretches in its own building through Gil and rarely has to chase.

Philadelphia can score here, and probably will, but to win at Gillette Stadium they have to outscore a home team that conceded 20 goals in 17 home matches while their own back line is giving up chances at the other end. Over a series opener, that is a hard trade to win.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.