Miami vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Miami is ranked No. 1 and playing like it, but North Carolina keeps landing in tight games at home, and Kenan Stadium has a way of making favorites work longer than they planned.
The Matchup
Darian Mensah has been close to flawless for Miami. Mensah has thrown for 2,151 yards and 22 touchdowns against 1 interception this season, and he went 31 of 37 for 387 yards and 4 touchdowns in Miami's most recent game, picking apart a defense that never made him uncomfortable. Malachi Toney turns that accuracy into damage.
Toney caught 16 passes for 194 yards and 3 touchdowns in that same game, and he has 952 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, a clear top option who wins at every level. Miami completes 80.9 percent of its passes, averages 10.4 yards per attempt, and adds 211.1 rushing yards per game, so North Carolina cannot load up on one phase and hope. North Carolina's answer is a defense that keeps scores manageable.
The Tar Heels allow 20.9 points per game, and their last three games finished 21-17, 24-20 and a 31-30 loss to Syracuse, all one-score afternoons. Billy Edwards Jr. gives that defense a partner. Edwards went 27 of 44 for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions in North Carolina's most recent game, and Jordan Shipp caught 8 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown in that game. Edwards and Shipp have to sustain drives, because quick punts against Miami become touchdowns.
Key Factors
North Carolina's run game is the weak link in the cover case. The Tar Heels rush for only 114.0 yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry, and Miami allows 15.3 points per game, so there is no easy way to hide Edwards and rest the defense. If Edwards has to throw as often as he did last time out, Miami gets extra possessions and Mensah's efficiency usually turns those into separation.
North Carolina converts 40.5 percent on third down, enough to extend some drives, and Shipp has 543 yards this season on 41 catches as Edwards's clear top target, the outlet who has to keep moving the chains. Miami also runs well enough to close a game out, with Javian Mallory at 7 rushing touchdowns this season and the power to finish drives Mensah starts.
What beats North Carolina here is Miami scoring early the way it did against Pittsburgh in a 52-23 win last week. If Toney gets loose for another huge half and North Carolina trails by three scores, Edwards chasing the game will not keep pace. North Carolina needs its defense to force field goals and keep this within reach into the fourth quarter, where the cushion finally starts to matter.
Miami should win in Chapel Hill, and Mensah may be the best player on the field by a distance. North Carolina's path is narrower and more stubborn. Keep the Hurricanes settling for field goals, let Edwards play his steady game, and drag a superior team into the kind of close finish this building keeps producing. Take North Carolina +14.5 at -110.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 7:30 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | ABC |
| VENUE | Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill |
| SPREAD | Miami -14.5 |
| TOTAL | 52.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Miami -750 |
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