UConn vs Air Force Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Air Force will run the ball on nearly every snap at Falcon Stadium, and UConn knows it. UConn also brings the more complete offense, scoring 35.6 points per game with real balance.

The Matchup

Air Force's plan is no secret. Air Force runs for 337.4 yards per game, passes for only 67.6 yards per game, and has 20 rushing touchdowns against 4 passing touchdowns. Evan Medders carried 21 times for 115 yards against Wyoming, and Medders has 490 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns this season. Air Force converts 52.9 percent on third down, so the Falcons can stay on the field and shrink the game at home.

UConn is built to answer that kind of game rather than survive it. UConn averages 35.6 points per game, with 244.6 passing yards per game and 203.0 rushing yards per game. Kalieb Osborne completed 14 of 19 passes for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns against Massachusetts, and Osborne has 1,594 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions this season. Cyncir Bowers ran 15 times for 131 yards and a touchdown in that 35-16 win, averaging 8.7 yards per carry.

Bowers has 564 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. The tension is possession count. Air Force wants eight long drives. UConn's efficiency at 8.8 yards per pass attempt means UConn can score on far fewer plays, which puts pressure on Air Force to keep up rather than just keep the ball.

Key Factors

Bowers is the player who can break Air Force's script. Air Force allows 20.9 points per game, a strong number, but Bowers just averaged 8.7 yards per carry and UConn averages 5.3 yards per carry as a team with 19 rushing touchdowns. If Bowers produces early, Air Force cannot sit in long, clock-draining drives while trailing.

Osborne protects the ball, with UConn quarterbacks throwing only 3 interceptions this season, and UConn has just 7 giveaways. Air Force has only 6 takeaways, so the Falcons are not built to flip a game with turnovers. The counterpoint is the Air Force ground game at home, and the counterpoint is formidable. Air Force ran its way to wins over Northern Illinois and UNLV before losing 28-14 at Wyoming, and Medders is a steady 5.5 yards per carry back.

If Air Force converts third downs at its 52.9 percent rate and limits UConn to a handful of possessions, UConn's scoring edge may never get enough chances to matter. UConn allows 23.9 points per game and has not seen a rushing volume like 337.4 yards per game. UConn has to win early downs, because third-and-short belongs to Air Force all afternoon.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.