Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Houston is 4-0 and favored by 8.5 on the road, and the Rockets just lost the center their whole offense runs through. Alperen Sengun is out tonight, and Milwaukee's building has a way of making unbeaten starts look ordinary. This number was priced for a different Houston team.

The Matchup

Houston is 4-0, the league's best start, scoring 120.8 points per game and allowing 111.0. The Rockets also lost their most important player this week. Alperen Sengun is out tonight with soreness in his back, a return expected around October 30. He leads Houston at 24.5 points per game and touches the ball on nearly every half-court possession, as a scorer and as the passer the cutters play off.

Steven Adams is also out with a strained right calf, so both of Houston's centers are missing. Fred VanVleet runs the offense at 7.0 assists per game, Amen Thompson leads the Rockets at 9.0 rebounds per game, and Kevin Durant gives them a scorer who needs no system at all. Marcus Smart is day-to-day with a strained left forearm.

Milwaukee is 1-3, and the defense explains the record. The Bucks allow 122.3 points per game while scoring 116.8 themselves, and home games have turned into track meets. Tyler Herro has been excellent, leading Milwaukee at 23.5 points and 5.8 assists per game, and Kyle Kuzma leads the Bucks at 8.5 rebounds per game. Milwaukee lists no players on its injury report, a rare clean sheet on tonight's board. The Bucks went 32-50 last season, and this roster is better than that, even if the start does not show it.

DraftKings makes Houston an 8.5-point road favorite at Fiserv Forum, with a total of 227.5. That price was set for the Rockets team of the season's first week, centers included.

Key Factors

Houston's offense without Sengun is the unknown at the center of this game. The Rockets run more of their offense through their center than any team in the league, and Clint Capela, now the starter by default, is a finisher rather than a hub. VanVleet and Durant will carry more creation, and Durant can carry plenty. What goes missing is the easy offense, the split cuts and short-roll passes that produced layups when the first option stalled.

Milwaukee's path is simpler. The Bucks are whole, at home, and scoring 116.8 a night against defenses that were trying. Herro against a Houston defense missing its back line has room to work, and the Bucks' pace turns backup-center minutes into layup lines. Houston's defense allows 111.0 with Sengun protecting the rim. Tonight that job falls to smaller lineups.

The spot helps the home team in quieter ways too. Houston is unbeaten and traveling, the classic place for a flat first quarter, while Milwaukee is 1-3 and hearing about it. A desperate home team with its full rotation, getting points, against a favorite missing its two centers is a bet on the situation as much as the rosters.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.