Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Detroit is 5-1 and defends like it, but the Pistons just lost the center their defense is built around. Charlotte cannot score much, yet a home game against a favorite missing its rim protector is a different assignment than the Hornets' record suggests.

The Matchup

Detroit is 5-1, and the record is built on defense. The Pistons allow 101.8 points per game, the stingiest mark on this slate, and they score 109.8 behind Cade Cunningham, who runs nearly every important possession. Detroit went 60-22 last season, so none of this is a fluke of the schedule. This is a settled, physical team that expects to win games like this one.

The problem is who is missing. Jalen Duren is out with a right hamstring strain and is not expected back until November 9. Duren is Detroit's starting center, its rebounder and the last line of a defense that funnels drivers toward him. Paul Reed can fill minutes, but he does not change shots the same way. Isaiah Joe is also listed out with a hip bruise and a return date of November 2, so his status is worth a late check.

Charlotte is 3-4 and scores just 98.3 points per game, the lowest output on this slate, while allowing 106.4. Brandon Miller and Coby White carry what offense the Hornets have, and Dennis Schroder keeps the second unit organized. Charlotte is also short-handed.

Grant Williams is out with a hamstring injury until around November 9, and Kon Knueppel is out with a hamstring injury on the same timeline. The Hornets went 44-38 last season, so the bones of a competent home team are in there, even if the scoring has dried up.

DraftKings makes Detroit a 4.5-point road favorite at Spectrum Center, with the Pistons at -175 on the moneyline and a total of 209.5, by far the lowest on this slate.

Key Factors

A total of 209.5 tells you how this game wants to be played. Neither team runs, Charlotte cannot buy a basket some nights, and Detroit is happy to win a game in the 90s. In a game that low-scoring, 4.5 points is a big cushion for the home team. One cold Detroit quarter, and the favorite spends the rest of the night protecting a lead instead of building one.

Duren's absence is the specific crack in Detroit's plan. Charlotte's guards live on penetration, and Miller is at his best going at a rim nobody is guarding. Without Duren, Detroit's help has to come from its forwards, which opens the kick-out passes Charlotte's shooters need. Keep an eye on whether Joe plays for Detroit before placing a bet, since his shooting is part of how the Pistons space the floor for Cunningham.

The honest counter is that Charlotte might simply not score enough to matter. The Hornets have failed to reach 100 too often this season, and if Detroit's perimeter defense holds Miller in check, the favorite can win ugly and still cover. This pick is not a claim that Charlotte is better. It is a claim that a favorite missing its center, in a game priced for very few points, is being asked to do too much on the road.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.