Minnesota vs Indiana Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
Indiana is No. 4 in the AP Top 25 at 7-1, and Minnesota arrives in Bloomington at 5-2 off a 13-10 win over Iowa. Indiana's last two wins have been grinders at 20-17 and 13-6, and Minnesota's defense has spent the season making favorites work for every point.
The Matchup
Minnesota's defense is the reason this spread has to be earned drive by drive. The Gophers allow 20.1 points per game and have taken the ball away 13 times, and Minnesota just held Iowa to 10 points in a 13-10 win. Indiana scores 33.6 points per game on the season, but Indiana's recent form tells a tighter story, with 20 points against Nebraska, 15 against Ohio State in a loss, and 13 against Michigan. Josh Hoover had a rough day against Michigan, completing 8 of 18 for 81 yards with an interception, a sharp drop from Hoover's season line of 1,741 yards, 18 touchdowns and only 1 interception.
Turbo Richard carried 19 times for just 68 yards at 3.6 yards per carry in that Michigan game. If Minnesota holds Richard near that rate and forces Hoover to drive the full field, Indiana's drives get long and the clock becomes Minnesota's friend. Minnesota does not need to stop Indiana cold. Minnesota needs the same kind of game Iowa got, low and slow.
Key Factors
Drake Lindsey gives Minnesota just enough offense to protect the defense. Lindsey has thrown for 1,472 yards with 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and Javon Tracy is Lindsey's main target with 420 yards on 39 catches, including 7 catches against Iowa.
Minnesota rushes for only 100.1 yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry, and that weakness is the honest problem with this side. Indiana's defense allows 12.0 points per game, has 28 sacks, and has allowed its quarterback to throw only 1 interception all season because Indiana rarely trails.
If Indiana gets an early lead, Lindsey has to throw into that pass rush and Minnesota's cover likely dies. The case for Minnesota is that Indiana has not been scoring like a top-five team for three weeks, Charlie Becker was held to 3 catches for 32 yards by Michigan after posting 726 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season, and a Minnesota team that converts takeaways at this rate only needs one short field to stay inside a number this large for four quarters.
Indiana is the better team, but Indiana has scored 13 and 15 points in two of its last three games while Minnesota allows 20.1 points per game and owns 13 takeaways. Our projection is Indiana 27, Minnesota 16. Take Minnesota +19.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 3:30 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | CBS |
| VENUE | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington |
| SPREAD | Indiana -19.5 |
| TOTAL | 42.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Indiana -1,350 |
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Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.