Montana State Bobcats vs BYU Cougars Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 23 BYU has scored in bunches through three home wins. Montana State arrives in Provo off a win over Long Beach State and a double-double from Jeremiah Davis.

The Matchup

Montana State visits No. 23 BYU on Thursday night at the Marriott Center in Provo, with BYU a 23.5-point favorite, a total of 163.5, on ESPN+. Nobody is picking the upset. The question is whether a good Big Sky team can keep a ranked Big 12 offense from turning this into a scrimmage by halftime.

BYU is 3-0 this season, scoring 100.0 points a game and allowing 77.3, all three wins at home: 94-83 over Ohio State, 108-67 over Omaha, and 98-82 over Queens. Last season the Cougars finished 23-12 in the Big 12, scoring 83.5 points a game and allowing 75.4, so the firepower is not new, even if the 108 against Omaha pads this season's average. Robert Wright III runs the show, and he just posted 21 points and 6 assists against Queens.

Montana State is 1-1, scoring 78.5 points a game and allowing 77.0 this season. The Bobcats lost 84-74 at Colorado State, then beat Long Beach State 83-70 at home. Last season Montana State finished 18-14 in the Big Sky, scoring 77.9 and allowing 71.4, a veteran profile that defends better than it has so far this season. Jeremiah Davis and Jed Miller carry no injury designations for the Bobcats, and Wright carries none for BYU.

Key Factors

Davis is the reason this spread feels heavy. He scored 17 points with 10 rebounds against Long Beach State, a double-double built on second chances, and extra possessions are how a big underdog bleeds a favorite's margin. Jed Miller added 14 points and hit 4 of his 8 three-pointers in that win, and Christian King scored 12, so Montana State has three real scoring options rather than one hope and a prayer. A team that rebounds and makes threes can trade enough baskets to stay in the 15-to-20 range even while losing.

BYU's path to a cover is pace and depth. The Cougars have scored 94 or more in all three games, Jaxon Kohler just gave them 15 points and 8 rebounds with 3-for-3 shooting from three against Queens, and the Marriott Center crowd feeds the runs that break visiting teams. Montana State allowing 77.0 points a game this season, including 84 at Colorado State, is the warning sign: if Wright pushes the tempo early, the Bobcats' half-court patience disappears and the fouls pile up.

The counterpoint is that BYU has not had to guard its lead late yet, because none of its three games stayed close. Montana State, though, played a full 40 minutes at Colorado State and won its home game by double digits, and a Bobcats team that keeps its starters fresh can score against BYU's second unit in the final minutes. Laying 23.5 asks the favorite to care about the margin deep into a game it has already won. That is a big ask, even in Provo.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.