Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

Montreal arrives in Dallas without Nick Suzuki, who is out with an upper-body injury, and runs into a Stars team allowing 2.00 goals per game with the league's best penalty kill. The Canadiens have been a good road team at 4-1-1, and Thursday asks how much of that road game survives losing its best player.

The Matchup

Dallas is 7-4-1 and wins games from its own end out. The Stars score 2.67 goals per game, the lowest output among Thursday's favorites, and allow 2.00, a +0.67 differential built entirely on suppression. Mikko Rantanen leads Dallas with 14 points, a team-high 6 goals and 8 assists, and the Stars are 4-3-0 at American Airlines Center. Dallas does not need to outscore Montreal; it needs the game to stay small, and it usually does.

Montreal is 7-3-2 with an even differential, 3.00 goals for and 3.00 against per game, and a strong 4-1-1 road record. The problem is who is missing. Nick Suzuki is out with an upper-body injury, and he leads the Canadiens with 12 points and 7 assists, so Montreal loses its top center and its power-play organizer in one absence.

Cole Caufield has a team-high 6 goals, and Ivan Demidov and goaltender Sam Montembeault are both on injured reserve with lower-body injuries. Dallas has its own list, with Esa Lindell on injured reserve with a lower-body injury and Radek Faksa out with a lower-body injury, but neither absence touches the Stars' best player or its crease.

Key Factors

Goaltending is elite on both sides, and it shapes everything about this game. Jake Oettinger is at 1.43 and .929 with three shutouts for Dallas, and Jacob Fowler is at 1.54 and .942 with two shutouts for Montreal.

Fowler is the reason Montreal can steal this: a goaltender playing at .942 can win a 2-1 game almost alone, and Dallas's modest scoring gives him a game to steal. The counter is volume and territory. Dallas spends long stretches in the offensive zone, and even a hot goaltender eventually faces the one broken play his defense cannot clear.

Special teams tilt hard toward the home side. Dallas kills 92.9 percent of its penalties, the best mark in the league, and Montreal's power play converts 11.4 percent even with Suzuki, so without him the Canadiens have almost no shortcut if Dallas locks down even strength.

Montreal kills a solid 83.7 percent and Dallas converts 18.5 percent, a smaller edge. Sam Steel is day-to-day for Dallas with an undisclosed injury. Keep an eye on whether Steel plays before placing a bet. In a low-scoring game, the team with the better kill and the home crowd usually finds the one goal that matters, and that team is Dallas.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.