Montreal Canadiens vs Winnipeg Jets Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

The Heritage Classic outdoors at Princess Auto Stadium was priced like a coin flip, and the goaltending matchup was supposed to be the reason to take Winnipeg. That reason is gone. Montreal's crease belongs to the goalie who has been winning its games, and a Jets team that scores through one line has to solve him outdoors.

The Matchup

On the season numbers alone this is the closest game on the Sunday slate, with Montreal and Winnipeg carrying identical -0.30 goal differentials per game. The rosters that actually skate out at Princess Auto Stadium for the Heritage Classic are nothing like that even.

Winnipeg's week was consumed by the Connor Hellebuyck trade, completed Friday to New Jersey after his trade request and suspension, which makes Stuart Skinner the Jets' unquestioned starter. Skinner has earned a fair hearing in that role.

He is 3-1-3 with a 2.67 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage, stopped 35 of 38 shots in Thursday's overtime loss at Dallas, and has been at .900 or better in five of his last six starts. The harder loss for this specific game may be Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg's top defenseman, who is on injured reserve with an upper-body injury and out until at least Nov 1, leaving rookie Elias Salomonsson, recalled Saturday after shoulder surgery in April, to step into the top four on an outdoor stage.

Montreal's absences cut deep into how a team scores. Captain Nick Suzuki (upper body, out two to four weeks) is Montreal's leading scorer with 12 points in nine games, and his playmaking is what makes Cole Caufield, the team leader with 6 goals, dangerous. Without him, Oliver Kapanen, who missed the first seven games of the season and is still looking for his first point, centers Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky.

Ivan Demidov, a second top-six winger, is also out with a lower-body injury and has not played since Oct 3. The encouraging sign for Montreal is real. Jake Evans scored twice with an assist on Friday in Chicago in the first game without Suzuki, a 4-1 win. But one bottom-six outburst does not rebuild a top six, and it came against a Chicago team that gives up goals in bunches.

Key Factors

The swing position in this game is Montreal's crease, and it has swung toward the Canadiens. Jacob Fowler is in line to start, per NHL.com's projected lineup, after making 20 saves in that Friday win in Chicago, and he has been credited with all but one of Montreal's wins this season. The earlier case for Winnipeg leaned on Jakub Dobes and his 4.47 goals-against average and .847 save percentage getting this start.

That goalie is not starting, and without him Winnipeg's path narrows to its one reliable scoring source. Kyle Connor leads the Jets with 9 goals and Cole Perfetti has 6, and that top line with Mark Scheifele also drives a power play converting at 22.2 percent against a Montreal power play converting at only 12.5 percent.

Dawson Mercer's Jets debut adds a wrinkle rather than a headline. Acquired in the Hellebuyck trade, he skates with Adam Lowry and Isak Rosen and on the penalty kill, and after scoring no goals in 10 games with New Jersey, his career average of 20 goals a season is the kind of secondary scoring Winnipeg has badly missed.

The counterpoint is specific, and it is why this price sits near even. Winnipeg has lost four straight games (0-2-2) while scoring just 8 goals, Connor and Perfetti have produced 15 of the Jets' 26 goals with almost nothing behind them, and without Morrissey the Jets' breakout has to survive a Montreal team that owns a 55.0 percent expected-goal share against Winnipeg's 46.3 percent, generates 29.5 shots per game, and wins 53.7 percent of faceoffs against Winnipeg's 45.0 percent.

The Canadiens will test a defense allowing 30.0 shots a night. Winnipeg still has real comforts. Skinner has been the steadier goalie over the full season, the game is outdoors at home, the Jets have had two days off since Thursday while Montreal played Friday, and Suzuki's absence is the single biggest one in the game.

If Fowler has an off night early, Connor's line is good enough to make a thin Montreal top six chase the game. But that is a list of things that have to go right for Winnipeg, against a Montreal team that controls play at five-on-five and now has its winning goalie in net. At a short price, the side with fewer conditions is the side to take.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.