Newcastle United vs Fulham Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Premier League

Newcastle United won a five-goal game against Fulham at St James' Park a fortnight ago, and the return at Craven Cottage on Saturday pairs a Fulham side that keeps its home games tight with visitors whose attack has gone quiet since that night.

The Matchup

Fulham are thirteenth at 3-1-5, with 10 goals scored and 14 conceded, and their problem is finishing. Josh King leads the side with 2 goals, Gonzalo Garcia has taken 23 shots and scored once, and Alex Iwobi has 1 goal, so Fulham create looks and convert very few of them.

Newcastle United are sixth at 4-3-2 with 14 goals scored, and their spread is just as thin at the top. Harvey Barnes has 2 goals and 2 assists, Joe Willock has 2 goals, Anthony Elanga has 2 in five matches, and Yoane Wissa has taken 20 shots, while goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek has made 31 saves behind a defense that travels well.

The two sides met at St James' Park on October 25 and Newcastle won 3-2, the one open game either has played lately. Fulham followed it with defeats at Crystal Palace and Aston Villa without scoring, after home wins over Hull City and Coventry City by 1-0. Newcastle have lost four of their last five, beaten at Coventry City and Aston Villa and twice by Everton either side of a 2-0 home win over Crystal Palace, scoring 4 goals across the five.

Neither club has named its side yet. Fulham are expected to stay in the 4-2-3-1 from Villa Park, with King expected to continue in midfield and Garcia expected to start in the front line, while Newcastle are expected to keep the shape from Goodison Park, with William Osula expected to lead the line and Barnes and Elanga expected wide.

Key Factors

Craven Cottage has been a low-scoring ground all season. Fulham have scored 1.0 goal per home match and conceded 0.75, and their two home wins finished 1-0 because that is the game this side is built to play at home, compact and patient. Newcastle's away split points the same way.

They have conceded 0.5 goals per away match, the strongest part of either side's record in this fixture, and their recent scoring has dried up to the point where a tight away performance is their most reliable route to a result. Two blunt attacks meeting two settled defenses is how low totals happen, and nothing in either side's last month suggests a sudden change.

The honest counterpoint is the game these two played a fortnight ago. Five goals at St James' Park showed how quickly this pairing can open up when an early goal lands, and Wissa and Barnes both carry enough shot volume to punish a Fulham mistake.

If Newcastle score first and Fulham have to chase at home, the second half can stretch the way the first meeting did. But that match is the outlier in both sides' recent form, and Fulham at home have shown no inclination to chase a game early. A slow first half suits both sides more than either will admit.

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