Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils Prediction: Best Bet for Thursday

New Jersey is 8-2-0 at Prudential Center and Washington has played only five road games all season, so Thursday is a test of how much of the Capitals' start travels. Jack Hughes has 26 points for the Devils, and the Capitals have to slow him down to find out.

The Matchup

New Jersey is 13-6-0, scoring 3.53 goals per game and allowing 2.89, a +0.63 differential from a team that has made Prudential Center a hard trip: the Devils are 8-2-0 at home. Jack Hughes is the engine, with 9 goals, 17 assists and 26 points, and he plays the game at a pace Washington's defense will feel on every shift. New Jersey has no overtime losses, which says something about how its games end: the Devils close in regulation, at home most of all.

Washington is 10-6-0, scoring 3.50 per game and allowing 3.31 for a +0.19 differential, and the Capitals' start comes with a schedule note: they have played only five road games, going 3-2-0, so most of their record was built at home. Alex Tuch leads Washington with 11 goals in the Capitals' listing, and Dylan Strome has 15 points on 12 assists.

Washington can score with New Jersey. The question is whether the Capitals can defend like them on the road, and 3.31 allowed a night says that part of their game is still a work in progress. The Capitals won the first meeting 4-2 on October 17, and the Devils have had a month to sit with that one.

Key Factors

The defensive gap is the argument. New Jersey allows 2.89 a night and Washington allows 3.31, and in a game between two teams that score at nearly the same rate, the team that gives less back usually takes it.

Washington's counter is special teams: the Capitals kill 77.8 percent of their penalties against New Jersey's weak 65.9 percent kill, and the two power plays are level, Washington at 18.2 percent and New Jersey at 18.0 percent. If the Capitals get their power play time and convert, the defensive gap can disappear in two shifts. That is the honest risk in the home pick.

In net, Logan Thompson is at a 3.09 goals-against average and a .891 save percentage in 12 games for Washington, with Charlie Lindgren at 3.08 and .881 behind him. New Jersey lists Jake Allen at 3.19 and .881 in 10 games and Connor Hellebuyck at 1.96 and .913 in five, the stronger pair of numbers if Hellebuyck carries the start.

New Jersey is missing Anthony Mantha, who is on injured reserve with a neck injury, and Seamus Casey, who is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Jonathan Kovacevic is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. Washington is missing Rasmus Sandin, who is on injured reserve after knee surgery, Vincent Desharnais, who is on injured reserve after abdominal surgery, and Robert Thomas, who is on injured reserve with an upper body injury.

The Washington case is the first meeting, the scoring rate, and the penalty kill gap. It fails on the road evidence and the defensive season: five road games is a thin record to trust in the slate's hardest home building, and a team allowing 3.31 a night gives Hughes and the Devils too many shifts to decide the game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.