New York Islanders vs Dallas Stars Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

Two of the hottest goalies in the league meet in Dallas, and both lineups in front of them are missing the players who usually create their chances. What is left is a low-event game that will turn on which top line converts the few real chances that appear.

The Matchup

Dallas's remarkable defensive line, 1.60 goals allowed per game on just 22.0 shots, is not an abstraction. It is Jake Oettinger, who is expected to start at 5-2-1 with a 1.23 goals-against average, a .939 save percentage and three shutouts, and who has won three straight starts, most recently stopping 17 of 19 shots in Thursday's 3-2 overtime win over Winnipeg. The honest complication is that the other crease is nearly as good.

Ilya Sorokin is expected for the Islanders at 5-2-0 with a 1.72 goals-against average and a .934 save percentage, and he has also won three straight, including a 3-2 win over Anaheim on Tuesday. Two goalies playing at this level is why the total is 5.5, the lowest of the five Sunday games, and why this moneyline is priced like a game that stays close into the third period.

Both lineups are missing real pieces, and that shapes how little offense either side can manufacture. Dallas is without Matt Duchene (abdomen, injured reserve), Esa Lindell (lower body, placed on injured reserve Oct 24) and Oskar Back, Sam Steel will not play after receiving an injection for an undisclosed injury, and Radek Faksa is questionable with a lower-body injury, so the Stars' second wave is thin.

Keep an eye on whether Faksa plays before placing a bet. The Islanders are without Mathew Barzal (knee, projected back Nov 7) and defenseman Alexander Romanov, who is on injured reserve after knee surgery, and forwards Matias Maccelli and Calum Ritchie are also out with lower-body injuries, so their attack runs almost entirely through Bo Horvat, who leads the team with 10 points (5 goals, 5 assists), and rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer, who has 9 points with 8 assists.

New York is 5-3-2 but only 1-2-1 on the road, and this game is at American Airlines Center, where Dallas is 3-2-0. When both teams are this depleted and both goalies are this hot, the game compresses into a test of whose top players can convert the two or three real chances that appear.

Key Factors

That test favors Dallas because its top end is producing more. Mikko Rantanen leads the Stars with 13 points (5 goals, 8 assists) and Jason Robertson has 11 points (3 goals, 8 assists), and both skate on the first power-play unit with Miro Heiskanen, Wyatt Johnston and Roope Hintz.

Horvat is a genuine scorer, but Barzal's absence means New York has no second creator of that level, and Dallas's structure is built to erase exactly what the Islanders have left. The Stars suppress shots better than anyone on the slate against an offense that generates 26.7 per game, so the volume path New York usually takes to its 2.90 goals per game narrows to the point where Sorokin has to be perfect and Horvat has to finish one of a handful of looks.

Special teams and faceoffs reinforce the same picture rather than offering either side an escape. Dallas kills 91.7 percent of penalties, the best mark on the slate, against a 20.0 percent Islanders power play, while the Islanders kill 88.2 percent against a Dallas power play at only 16.0 percent, so the game stays at five-on-five, where Dallas's structure is strongest, and Dallas's 57.1 percent faceoff rate, the best on the slate, hands the Stars the extra possessions that decide a low-event game.

The counterpoint deserves to be stated plainly. Sorokin is fully capable of stealing this game, the Islanders have taken points in five straight games (3-0-2), and Dallas scores only 2.50 goals per game with Duchene out, so one bad bounce in the third makes a -198 ticket look very expensive.

That risk is real, but it is a variance risk, not a matchup edge for New York. Over 60 minutes, the Islanders still have to generate offense against the best shot suppression and the best penalty kill on the slate, on the road, without their best playmaker.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.