Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Paolo Banchero scored 35 in Orlando's opener, then turned his ankle Friday against Minnesota and is out into late November. What walks into Madison Square Garden tonight is Franz Wagner carrying the entire offense, a defense that has given up 132 and 115 points in two home losses, and no Jonathan Isaac behind it. The Knicks have problems of their own at 0-2, but theirs is the kind a soft defense can fix.

The Matchup

Two 0-2 teams meet at Madison Square Garden, and the injury report is the whole story. Orlando has scored 109.0 points per game and allowed 123.5, the softest defense on the Sunday slate, and that was mostly with Banchero.

He put up 35 points and 10 assists against Atlanta in the opener and was running the half court through himself on nearly every trip before the ankle injury Friday, which leaves Wagner, at 22 and 18 points in the two games, as the only Magic player who can create a shot against a set defense. Isaac, Orlando's most versatile defender, is out with a knee injury too, and Anthony Black, the backup guard who would absorb some of the creation, has missed both games and is a game-time decision tonight.

New York's problem is smaller and it sits at the other end. The Knicks have scored 101.5 points per game through two losses, both of them close. They lost 106-100 to Philadelphia here on Tuesday and 107-103 at Boston on Friday. Jalen Brunson is 13-for-36 from the field in the two games.

Karl-Anthony Towns has been fine, with 19 points and 12 rebounds against the 76ers and 22 and 10 at Boston, on a team that went 53-29 last season. Orlando went 45-37 with Banchero healthy. DraftKings makes New York -7.5 with a total of 224.5, the lowest on the slate, and the Knicks -298 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Brunson gets the defense his shooting slump needs. Orlando's perimeter has no deterrence behind it with Isaac out. The Magic cannot load up on Brunson without consequence, because Towns drags the one rim protector they have left out to the three-point line. Somebody in a Knicks uniform is open on nearly every possession, and it only takes one normal Brunson night to make the drought a memory.

The creation gap shows up late in the clock. With Banchero, Orlando could manufacture a decent look in the last eight seconds. Without him, those trips end with Wagner driving into a loaded defense or Tristan da Silva creating in a role he has never carried. That is how a road underdog loses touch with a number like 7.5. It does not happen in one run. It happens four and five empty trips at a time, while the favorite builds the margin a possession at a time.

The counterpoint is the total. This projects as the day's slowest game, and low-possession games compress margins. If Wagner scores 30 and Brunson's slump runs to a third game, New York can win this and still not cover. The bet is that a missing creator costs more than a missing rhythm. The creator is gone for weeks. The rhythm can turn on one good shooting night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.