Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Luka Doncic is averaging 36 points a night, Stephen Curry is still Stephen Curry, and the market cannot separate their teams at Chase Center. Golden State's defense has given up 119.4 points per game and just lost Jimmy Butler for months, which is a bad week to see the league's hottest scorer.

The Matchup

The Lakers are 4-1, and Luka Doncic is the reason. Los Angeles scores 123.2 points per game, Doncic leads the team at 36.0 points and 8.2 assists per game, and he dismantles coverages one at a time. Walker Kessler leads the Lakers at 8.2 rebounds per game and gives Doncic a vertical threat at the rim, and Austin Reaves and Collin Sexton fill in the secondary scoring.

The Lakers beat the Clippers 103-87 on Wednesday with defense, of all things, after losing at Portland on Tuesday. Their report is light. Cameron Carr and Adou Thiero are out, and Ziaire Williams is day-to-day.

Golden State is 2-3 and leaking. The Warriors score 117.6 points per game and allow 119.4, and they beat Minnesota 119-114 on Wednesday in another game where the defense was optional. Stephen Curry leads Golden State at 28.8 points per game and remains the most feared shooter alive, and Draymond Green leads the team at 6.8 assists per game. The absences are the story, though.

Jimmy Butler III is out after surgery, with a return expected around January 2, and Butler was Golden State's best Doncic defender and its second creator. Kristaps Porzingis is out until around December 1, and Moses Moody is also out, so the Warriors are small and thin against a team built around a 36-point scorer. With both teams only a week into the season, these numbers pair this season's games with last season's final marks. The Lakers were the better team last season, and this season's gap in health is wider than the gap in talent.

DraftKings makes the Lakers a 1.5-point road favorite at Chase Center, with Los Angeles at -130 on the moneyline and a total of 234.5.

Key Factors

Doncic against a Butler-less defense is the matchup, full stop. Golden State has to choose between guarding him straight up with wings he can post and shoot over, or sending help and letting him pick out shooters, which is the pass he has made his whole career.

Green will organize and gamble and make some plays, but over 40 minutes the math favors the scorer. The Warriors' counter is pace and volume from three. Curry off screens still warps a defense, and at home Golden State's role players shoot with confidence. If the Warriors make their usual share of threes, they can absolutely win this game outright.

The Lakers' size is the quieter edge. Kessler at the rim lets Los Angeles stay home on shooters more than most teams dare against Curry, and the Lakers' length on the perimeter bothers Golden State's smaller lineups. The Warriors also have nobody to make Doncic work on defense, which matters in the fourth quarter of a close game. Their best defender on him is resting after surgery, and it shows up late.

Gui Santos is day-to-day for Golden State with tendinitis, a minor note on a report dominated by Butler. In a near pick'em, the tiebreakers are the best player, the healthier rotation, and the matchup with no answer. All three point the same way, so the moneyline is the play rather than laying the point and a half.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.