North Florida Ospreys vs California Baptist Lancers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

California Baptist, coming off a 25-9 season and its first NCAA Tournament, opens its first Big West season at home against North Florida, which allowed 88.2 points a game last season, the worst defensive number on the board.

The Matchup

California Baptist is a 9.5-point favorite over North Florida at the Fowler Events Center in Riverside on Tuesday night, with a total of 155.5, on ESPN+. It is the first meeting ever between the two programs, the season opener for both, and California Baptist's first game as a member of the Big West.

The Lancers finished 25-9 last season, won their conference tournament, and reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time, losing 68-60 to Kansas, while scoring 72.6 points per game and allowing 67.6. North Florida finished 7-25, scoring 79.6 and allowing 88.2. Those are last season's numbers, and the home roster in particular looks very different now.

California Baptist lost its head coach and its top seven scorers after that tournament run, which is why a 25-9 team was picked ninth in its new league. The rebuild starts with Terry Coner Jr., a Division II All-American at Oklahoma Baptist who averaged 19.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists. Ethan Duncan averaged 10.5 points a game at Lipscomb last season.

Jordan Muller is one of the few returning Lancers with a real role from last season, and he shared the team lead with 10 points in the exhibition at UCLA. Steven Reynolds III, a four-star freshman, also scored 10 in that game, with all three of his baskets coming from three. The exhibition itself was rough, a 100-53 loss in which the Lancers shot 30 percent, against a ranked team on the road in the first game under new coach Kyle Getter. Neither team has an injury report for this game.

North Florida can score, and its returning core is more settled than the home team's. Kent Jackson, the Ospreys' leading returning scorer, averaged 14.8 points a game last season. Mason Lee averaged 8.0 points and 5.6 rebounds, and B.J. Plummer averaged 7.7, so three starters are back. Point guard Mason Watkins also returns after a season-ending injury in the preseason a year ago.

Key Factors

This pick is built on one number, and it is a loud one. North Florida allowed 88.2 points a game last season. That is not a slump or a bad month. Over a full season, the Ospreys were outscored by 8.6 points a game because they could not get stops against anyone, and a team like that has to shoot brilliantly just to stay in a road game.

California Baptist allowed 67.6 a game last season, on its way to a plus-5.0 differential. Rosters change, and the Lancers changed more than most, but a defensive gap that wide is about identity and habits, not just personnel.

The building and the trip do the rest. California Baptist carries a 19-game home winning streak into this game, one of the longest active streaks in Division I, and North Florida opens with three road games in six days against NCAA Tournament teams, here, then at UCLA, then at Miami. The flight from Jacksonville to Riverside is the easy part of that trip. A visiting team that defends this poorly, at the end of a cross-country travel day, tends to give up one run it cannot answer.

The counterpoint deserves its weight. California Baptist lost its top seven scorers and its coach, its only game together so far was a 47-point exhibition loss, and its new lead scorer did his scoring in Division II.

If Coner struggles and the Lancers shoot the way they did at UCLA, North Florida's returning guards are good enough to keep this close all night, and Jackson is the most proven Division I scorer in the game. Laying points with a rebuilt team is a bet on the matchup, and the matchup here is a defense that gives up 88.2 a night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.