Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bellarmine Knights Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Bellarmine is favored by a single possession at home while allowing 86.8 points a game, and Northern Illinois brings the best guard matchup in the game to Louisville.

The Matchup

Northern Illinois visits Bellarmine on Saturday at Knights Hall in Louisville, on ESPN+, with Bellarmine favored by 1.5 points, a total of 150.5, and no moneyline posted. It is close to a pick'em because the teams pull in opposite directions: Northern Illinois scores and gives it back, Bellarmine defends in stretches and struggles to score with any consistency.

Northern Illinois is 2-2, scoring 81.2 points a game and allowing 75.5. David Douglas Jr. leads the Huskies at 17.2 points and 6.2 rebounds a game, and Max Weisbrod hands out 7.2 assists a game, the best creating number in this matchup. Douglas and Weisbrod carry no injury designations.

Bellarmine is 1-3, scoring 72.0 points a game and allowing 86.8, the leakiest defense in this pairing by a distance. Tyler Doyle leads the Knights at 12.2 points and 3.2 assists a game, and Kenyon Goodin leads them at just 3.8 rebounds a game, a sign of how small Bellarmine has played.

Doyle and Goodin carry no injury designations. Last season Bellarmine scored 80.0 and allowed 81.7 while winning 13 games, so the Knights were a shootout team a year ago; this season's version scores less and defends worse, and Northern Illinois flipped the other way, from 69.5 scored and 77.8 allowed last season to a genuinely dangerous offense in its first four games.

Key Factors

Weisbrod against a defense allowing 86.8 points a game is the matchup that tilts it. A guard handing out 7.2 assists a game picks apart a defense that cannot keep the ball in front of it, and Douglas is the finisher who benefits, scoring inside and out at 17.2 a game.

The glass and the turnovers both lean the same way. Northern Illinois rebounds 39.8 a game against Bellarmine's 29.8, and Bellarmine gives the ball away 17.0 times a game, the worst ball security in this game. Extra possessions are how a road team wins a one possession spread game: the Huskies get more shots, and the Knights waste more of theirs.

The honest counterpoint is Knights Hall itself and Bellarmine's shooting touch. The Knights still make 46 percent of their shots, Doyle is a steady hand late, and Northern Illinois allows 75.5 points a game, so this can absolutely become the shootout the total expects. If Bellarmine's home crowd and a hot first half push the Huskies into chasing, the short home number is enough.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.