LSU Tigers vs Gonzaga Bulldogs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

LSU is 3-0 and averaging 94.0 points a game, but every win came at home. No. 14 Gonzaga in Spokane, with Davis Fogle scoring 22.0 a game, is the first real test of the Tigers' start.

The Matchup

LSU visits No. 14 Gonzaga on Saturday at 2:30 PM CT at Spokane Numerica Veterans Arena in Spokane, Washington, on USA Network, with Gonzaga a 6.5-point favorite, a total of 161.5, and no moneyline posted. It is LSU's first road game of the season, and the Tigers could not have picked a much harder place to take it.

Gonzaga is 2-0 out of the Pac-12 Conference, scoring 93.5 points a game and allowing 70.0 this season, and the standard behind those numbers is last season's 31-4 team, which scored 84.3 a game and allowed 66.2. Davis Fogle leads Gonzaga at 22.0 points a game, Xaivian Lee leads the Bulldogs at 6.5 assists a game, and Fogle also leads them at 4.5 rebounds a game, a thin rebounding figure that matters in this matchup. Fogle and Lee carry no injury designations into this game. Gonzaga shoots 53.0 percent as a team and has made 19 of its 40 three-point attempts.

LSU is 3-0 out of the Southeastern Conference, scoring 94.0 points a game and allowing 52.7 this season. The skeptic's case writes itself: all three wins came at home, and last season's Tigers went 15-17, scored 81.4 a game, and allowed 78.5, so a defense allowing 52.7 has not yet met a real offense.

The players driving the start are new problems, though. Michael Ruzic leads LSU at 15.7 points a game, Saliou Niang leads the Tigers at 10.3 rebounds a game, and Donovan Dent leads them at 8.3 assists a game. Ruzic, Niang, and Dent carry no injury designations into this game, and LSU shoots 54.6 percent as a team.

Key Factors

The first factor is the rebounding gap, and it is not close. LSU averages 46.0 rebounds a game; Gonzaga averages 32.0. Niang alone averages more than double the figure of Gonzaga's team leader on the glass, and a road underdog that owns the boards controls the one thing the Gonzaga offense needs, which is rhythm. Second chances also slow the Bulldogs' break and keep the LSU defense set.

The second factor is the point guard matchup inside a 161.5 total. Dent's 8.3 assists a game drive an LSU offense averaging 22.7 assists a game, and Lee answers at 6.5 a game for a Gonzaga team that wants to run. If Dent values the ball and turns this into a half-court game, LSU's size decides more possessions. If Lee pushes the pace and Gonzaga's shooting holds at home, the total and the margin can both get away from the Tigers.

The honest counterpoint is that LSU's numbers were built at home against a soft opening slate, and Gonzaga is a different weight class entirely: a 31-win team last season, ranked and at home, with an offense scoring 93.5 a game even while its rebounding lags. If Gonzaga's first real punch lands early and the Spokane crowd gets loud, LSU's young season can unravel quickly. The Tigers have to prove their defense travels before anything else about their start is believed.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.