Northern Illinois vs San José State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

Northern Illinois is 0-8 and allows 37.6 points a game, the worst defense on the Saturday slate. San José State's offense is nobody's idea of a powerhouse, and the Spartans just lost at New Mexico. They do not need to be a powerhouse on Saturday. They need to be functional, at home, against this.

The Matchup

Start with the defense that decides the handicap. San José State allows 22.3 points per game, a genuinely good unit that has kept the Spartans in games their offense had no business contesting. Northern Illinois allows 37.6, has lost all eight of its games, and has given up 56 to Hawaii and 41 to Wyoming in the last month.

The Huskies' offense scores 16.2 points per game behind Taron Dickens, who has thrown for 1,617 yards with 8 touchdowns, with Telly Johnson Jr. at 574 rushing yards and DeAree Rogers at 633 receiving yards - respectable weapons attached to an offense that cannot finish drives. San José State's offense is modest but real.

Luke Weaver has thrown for 1,810 yards with 11 touchdowns, Jabari Bates has rushed for 649 yards, and Carson Clark has 642 receiving yards, a balanced trio that Northern Illinois's defense has no answer for at any level. The Spartans lost 21-16 at New Mexico and 28-13 at Nevada in their last two, which is the reason this spread is not bigger.

Key Factors

The honest counterpoint is San José State's own scoring. A team averaging 19.9 points per game, coming off outputs of 16 and 13, is being asked to win by double digits, and one flat half makes that impossible. Weaver has to be merely competent, and lately he has been less than that. But the opponent is the argument.

Northern Illinois has lost its last three by 7, 35 and 18 points, its defense makes every quarterback look functional, and the Huskies just played at UNLV on November 1, a short week and a long trip west for a team with nothing left to play for. San José State is home, rested by comparison, and facing the one defense in the country against which its offense should look like a normal offense. Ten points is a lot for the Spartans. It is not a lot against this Huskies team.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.