Temple vs Navy Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

Navy runs for 296 yards a game and throws for 109, and its quarterback is also its leading rusher by a mile. Temple has lost three straight and its season is narrowing to pride. The Midshipmen are home and should win. Whether an offense this one-dimensional clears a touchdown and the hook is a different question.

The Matchup

Navy's offense is Jackson Gutierrez, and the scouting report fits on an index card: the Midshipmen run for 295.8 yards per game, throw for 108.6, and Gutierrez personally accounts for 717 passing yards and 979 rushing yards, with Jordan Collins' 212 receiving yards leading a receiving corps that exists mostly as a rumor. It is a beautiful, brutal, predictable offense, and when it works it bleeds games dry.

The trouble is Navy's defense, which allows 29.9 points per game and has given up 35, 49 and 38 in three straight losses to Notre Dame, North Texas and UTSA. Temple's offense is built to answer long drives with long drives.

Ajani Sheppard has thrown for 1,245 yards with 8 touchdowns, Keveun Mason has rushed for 564 yards, and Colin Chase leads the receivers at 330 yards for a team scoring 23.6 points per game. Temple's defense, allowing 26.6, is quietly the better unit in this game, and the Owls' losses to East Carolina, Charlotte and UConn were all one-possession games in the fourth quarter.

Key Factors

Option games are possession math, and Navy's rushing volume shrinks the number of chances either team gets, which inflates every point in a 7.5-point spread. Temple does not need to stop the option cold. It needs Mason to answer with clock-eating drives of his own and its defense to steal two or three stops, which Navy's recent opponents have managed regularly. The honest counterpoint is Gutierrez himself and Annapolis.

He is the best player in this game, Temple's defenders have five days to learn option discipline that takes most teams a month, and if Navy jumps ahead early, Sheppard chasing through the air is a losing script for the Owls. Temple has also lost three straight and its margin for error is gone. But Navy has lost three straight too, by more, with a defense that cannot protect any lead its offense builds. A touchdown and the hook against a favorite in that shape is the side to take.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.