New Mexico vs San José State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

New Mexico arrives in San Jose with a defense that strangles games, and San José State answers with a pass rush that can wreck a run-first favorite. The tension is simple. The Lobos control games, but the Spartans only need to make this one messy.

The Matchup

The total and the spread fight each other in this game, and that fight is the story. With a total of 41.5, the Lobos are being asked to supply most of the scoring in a low game while San José State contributes almost nothing. New Mexico can do that on its best days, scoring 37.0 points per game behind 210.6 rushing yards per game and 23 rushing touchdowns.

The Lobos' last two wins look different, though, with the offense landing in the low twenties in a 21-10 win at Hawaii and a 21-16 win at home against North Dakota State. San José State's defense allows 22.5 points per game and has recorded 29 sacks, a pass rush that can wreck the obvious passing downs a run-first team eventually faces.

Luke Weaver has thrown for 1,620 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Spartans, enough to answer a score or two at home. New Mexico's defense allows 11.3 points per game with 15 interceptions, so San José State will not score easily, but the Spartans do not need much at this number if the pass rush keeps the favorite from settling in early.

Key Factors

Schedule spot matters for the favorite. New Mexico played on October 25 and gets 5 days before a road trip to San Jose, while the Spartans get 6 days and home field at CEFCU Stadium. A run-first favorite on a short week is vulnerable to a slow start, and New Mexico throws for only 153.3 yards per game, so if San José State's front sells out against the run, the Lobos have no easy counter.

The honest counterpoint is New Mexico's defense. A defense that strong can turn Weaver's aggression into turnovers, and the Spartans score only 20.4 points per game with 5 rushing touchdowns all season. If the Lobos build a lead early, San José State has no ground game to control the rest of the afternoon and the margin can grow late.

That is what beats this pick. San José State covers by sacking its way off the field on third down, keeping New Mexico in the low-scoring range Hawaii and North Dakota State just forced, and letting a tight total shape the rest of the afternoon in San Jose.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.