Charlotte vs UAB Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

UAB is laying 11.5 at home with an offense that scores 21.6 points a game, which tells you everything about Charlotte's defense and nothing good about the favorite. The 49ers allow 40 a night and just scored 31 on Tulane in a loss. Somebody's number in this game is wrong.

The Matchup

Charlotte's defense is the worst unit in this game and it is not close: the 49ers allow 40.2 points per game, a number that explains how a 1-7 team becomes an 11.5-point underdog to a .500 team. The 49ers just lost 38-31 to Tulane and gave up 50 to North Texas before that. What Charlotte does have is an offense that has started to function. Conner Harrell has thrown for 831 yards, Henry Rutledge has rushed for 452, and Jaden Barnes leads the receivers at 462 yards for a team that scored 38 in a win over Temple and 31 on Tulane in consecutive weeks.

UAB's problem is that it cannot score either. The Blazers average 21.6 points per game behind Ryder Burton's 1,333 passing yards and 6 touchdowns, with Rod Robinson II at 450 rushing yards and CJ Smith at 403 receiving yards. UAB's last three games produced 13, 30 and 10 points, the 30 coming against East Carolina. Its defense, allowing 25.2, is respectable, which is the entire case for the favorite.

Key Factors

Favorites that cannot score are the oldest fade in the sport, and UAB qualifies completely. To cover 11.5, the Blazers need something like 31 points, a total they have reached once all season, against a Charlotte team whose offense has finally started trading scores instead of folding.

The 49ers' path is simple: Harrell protects the ball, Rutledge keeps them on schedule, and the defense only has to be bad rather than catastrophic for the cover to hold. The honest counterpoint is that Charlotte's defense has been catastrophic often enough to respect the fear.

If UAB's defense forces two early turnovers and the Blazers get short fields, this could be 31-14 by the fourth quarter without UAB's offense playing well at all. Charlotte is also winless on the road in spirit if not in fact, and Protective Stadium will not help. But the number, not the moneyline, is the bet, and the number asks a 21-points-a-game offense to win by 12. That is too much to ask.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.