Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Saint Louis is 2-0 after winning at Missouri, and the Billikens are laying 23.5 at home. Northern Kentucky has already scored 102 in a road win. Tuesday night at Chaifetz Arena pairs the biggest spread on the board with the highest total.

The Matchup

Northern Kentucky visits Saint Louis on Tuesday night at Chaifetz Arena in St. Louis, on ESPN+, with Saint Louis a 23.5-point home favorite, a total of 167.5, and the Billikens priced at -8,000 on the moneyline against Northern Kentucky at +2,200. Saint Louis is 2-0 and Northern Kentucky is 2-1, and both teams play fast, which is why the total is the highest on Tuesday's board.

Saint Louis beat Lehigh 92-67 at home, with Kellen Thames scoring 15, then went to Missouri and won 90-84 behind Amari McCottry's 17 points and Trey Green's 6 assists. The Billikens have scored 91.0 a game and allowed 75.5, following last season's 29-6 team, which scored 87.2 and allowed 70.5. McCottry is active, led the Billikens in the Missouri win, and carries no injury designation on the ESPN game summary. This is a deep, confident home team, and the moneyline price tells you the winner is barely in doubt.

The spread is a different question, because Northern Kentucky can score. The Norse beat UTEP 84-76, won 102-94 at South Dakota, and lost 104-67 at Texas A&M. Noah Pagotto scored 30 at South Dakota after pulling down 12 rebounds against UTEP, Willie Foster scored 24 against UTEP and 23 at Texas A&M, and Eric Acker dealt 12 assists at South Dakota. Pagotto and Foster are both active with no injury designations.

Northern Kentucky has scored 84.3 a game while allowing 91.3, and last season's 20-14 Norse team scored 83.1 and allowed 77.5. The Texas A&M loss is the cautionary tape for this pick and the market is pricing it heavily: against a high-major athlete, the Norse gave up 104. But Saint Louis, for all its quality, allowed 84 at Missouri, and its games invite the opponent to keep playing.

Key Factors

The total explains the value. At 167.5, the market expects a track meet, and track meets protect big underdogs: more possessions mean more chances for a scoring team to trade baskets instead of being ground down. Northern Kentucky has two proven producers in Pagotto and Foster, who have combined for games of 30, 24, and 23 points already this season, and Acker just posted a 12-assist road game. A team with that much creation needs a truly bad night to lose by 24 or more in a game played at this pace.

Saint Louis's own defense is the second factor. The Billikens allowed 84 at Missouri and 67 to Lehigh, and their style under a heavy favorite price tends to trade late baskets rather than squeeze. Northern Kentucky does not need to slow Saint Louis down; the Norse need to keep scoring into the second half, which is exactly what their first three games say they do against everyone except Texas A&M.

The counterpoint is that Texas A&M game itself. The Norse lost by 37 in College Station, allowed 104, and scored only 67, so the blowout script exists and Saint Louis is good enough to run it. If the Billikens defend at last season's level (70.5 allowed a game) instead of this season's early level, this pick is in trouble by halftime. The bet is that the pace and Northern Kentucky's guard play keep the margin in the teens, well inside a very large number.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.