Notre Dame vs Navy Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

No. 5 Notre Dame brings a high-powered offense to a neutral site at Gillette Stadium, and Navy brings the ground game that can shorten any afternoon. The Midshipmen are happy to play keep-away, and that clock control is the whole tension in a game the Irish should otherwise control.

The Matchup

Navy does not try to match Notre Dame throw for throw, and that refusal is what makes a spread this large so awkward. The Midshipmen average 307.7 rushing yards per game, and Jackson Gutierrez is the engine behind it. Gutierrez has 869 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns this season, and he was at his best in the most recent game, carrying 26 times for 228 yards and 3 touchdowns.

When Navy runs at 5.7 yards per carry and converts 43.2 percent on third down, drives stretch on and the afternoon shrinks around the favorite. Notre Dame is still far more efficient when it does have the ball. CJ Carr has thrown for 1,639 yards with 16 touchdowns and 1 interception, the Irish average 41.1 points per game while allowing 13.4, and Jaden Greathouse just turned 8 catches into 125 yards.

Notre Dame should control the scoreboard from early on. The problem is volume. A team that holds the ball this well gives the Irish fewer possessions, and fewer possessions means fewer chances to stack the quick scores a cover like this demands.

Key Factors

Rest favors Notre Dame and ball security threatens Navy, and both show up late in games like this. The Irish last played on October 17 and get 13 days before kickoff, while Navy played on October 24 and gets 6 days, so the rested defense should stay patient against the option looks instead of chasing the ball. Navy cannot afford to waste that discipline.

The Midshipmen have 10 giveaways against 3 takeaways this season, and Notre Dame has given the ball away only 2 times, so one short field in the second half can turn a comfortable Irish win into a blown cover for Navy backers and a cover for the favorite. Gutierrez is also the release valve when Notre Dame crowds the box.

He threw for 133 yards and a touchdown in the most recent game at 13.3 yards per attempt, and Merrick Barlow gave him a downfield target on the outside. Navy does not need many completions to change the picture. Navy needs just enough passing threat to keep Notre Dame honest, keep the chains moving, and keep this margin looking like a normal win instead of a rout.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.