Buffalo Sabres vs San Jose Sharks Prediction: Best Bet for Tuesday

Buffalo has gone to overtime in four of its last five games and won one of them, a team living permanently one goal from everything. San Jose scores 3.00 goals per game behind 15 points in 10 games from its young center, and its power play converts at 26.8 percent against a Buffalo penalty kill sitting at 69.2 percent.

The Matchup

Buffalo is the league's most frustrating team to watch right now. The Sabres are 4-4-3, and four of their last five games went to overtime, with one win to show for it, a 5-4 victory over Toronto. They score 2.82 goals per game and allow 3.64, and the crease is the leak.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 3-3 with a 3.56 goals-against average and an .866 save percentage, and Colten Ellis sits at 3.19 and .864. Jack Quinn leads Buffalo with 11 points, Tage Thompson has 9, and Owen Power has 9 from the blue line. The Sabres are 1-1-3 on the road, and their only road win needed overtime.

San Jose is quietly respectable at 6-5-1, scoring 3.00 goals per game and allowing 3.50. Macklin Celebrini is the engine, with 5 goals and 15 points in 10 games, and Ivar Stenberg and Tyler Toffoli have 9 points each. The Sharks beat Ottawa 6-2 and Montreal in overtime in the last week. In net, Alex Nedeljkovic is 3-1 with a 2.89 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage, while Yaroslav Askarov is at 3.43 and .883. Either San Jose starter has outplayed both Buffalo goaltenders this season.

Key Factors

Special teams are a mismatch in both directions, which is rare. San Jose's power play converts at 26.8 percent, and Buffalo kills penalties at 69.2 percent, one of the weakest kills on Tuesday's slate. At the other end, Buffalo's power play converts at 10.5 percent against a San Jose kill of 80.5 percent. The Sabres lose the man-advantage battle coming and going, and in a game between two teams that allow goals freely, the power-play goal is usually the margin.

Availability gives Buffalo a small opening. Alexander Wennberg is out with an upper-body injury for San Jose, and Wennberg is the two-way center who usually takes the hard defensive assignments, which matters against Thompson's line. Buffalo is without Jiri Kulich, who is out with a concussion, and Justin Danforth is day to day with an upper-body injury. Keep an eye on whether Danforth plays before placing a bet.

The counterpoint is Buffalo's stubbornness. A team that reaches overtime every night is never out of a game, and four overtime losses mean the Sabres are one bounce from a winning record. San Jose allows 3.50 per game, so Buffalo will get its chances, and Thompson and Quinn are good enough to punish Askarov's .883 if he starts.

The Sabres' problem is that hanging around is their ceiling. They have turned close games into points, not wins, and the goaltending gap says the close game breaks San Jose's way more often than not.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.