Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday

Montreal has won four straight and sits 8-3-2, but Saturday it faces Pittsburgh without Nick Suzuki, the center who holds its top six together. The Canadiens' goaltending has been good enough to cover for a power play scoring on barely a tenth of its chances, and the Bell Centre on a Saturday night asks whether it can cover for this too.

The Matchup

Montreal is 8-3-2 with a plus-0.23 differential, scoring 3.15 goals per game and allowing 2.92, and it has won four straight games. Cole Caufield leads the Canadiens with 8 goals and 12 points, and Lane Hutson has 8 assists from the blue line.

The catch is Nick Suzuki. Suzuki is out for Saturday, and Ivan Demidov is out on injured reserve, so Montreal loses its top center and a piece of its future in the same lineup card. Mike Matheson is day-to-day for Montreal. Keep an eye on whether Matheson plays before placing a bet.

Pittsburgh is 5-6-2 at minus-0.08, scoring 3.23 per game and allowing 3.31, an old team still capable of scoring in bunches. Erik Karlsson leads the Penguins with 13 points and 11 assists, and Evgeni Malkin has 6 goals. Bryan Rust is out on injured reserve for Pittsburgh, and Justin Brazeau is also out, which trims the Penguins' finishing behind their stars.

Key Factors

Goaltending has carried Montreal all month, and the split matters Saturday. Jacob Fowler has been outstanding at 1.54 goals against and a .942 save percentage, while Jakub Dobes sits at 4.05 and .853, with Sam Montembeault out on injured reserve. If Fowler starts, Montreal's edge is large against Arturs Silovs and his 2.98 and .889 for Pittsburgh.

If Dobes starts, the game tightens considerably. The other lever is special teams, and it points at Pittsburgh. Montreal's power play converts just 10.3 percent, the worst mark on Saturday's slate, while the Penguins convert 20.0 percent and kill 84.4 percent of their penalties, so Pittsburgh can win the special-teams battle even while losing the even-strength one.

Montreal wins 51.2 percent of faceoffs to Pittsburgh's 45.5, which softens the Suzuki absence at least in the circle. The honest counterpoint is that Saturday night at the Bell Centre against a rested, streaking home team is a hard spot for an aging roster, but a Penguins win built on Karlsson and Malkin outplaying a Suzuki-less middle is easy to picture.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.