Columbus Blue Jackets vs Dallas Stars Prediction: Best Bet for Saturday
Dallas allows 2.23 goals per game and kills 93.5 percent of its penalties, and Saturday it hosts the lowest-scoring team on the slate that is still trying to win games. Columbus scores 2.45 per game and has to solve Jake Oettinger to change that. The Stars do not beat themselves, which is precisely the problem for a visitor that needs help.
The Matchup
Dallas is 7-5-1 with a plus-0.38 differential built entirely on prevention. The Stars score just 2.62 goals per game and allow 2.23, the fewest on Saturday's slate, and they allow only 22.1 shots per game, also the slate's best mark. Mikko Rantanen leads Dallas with 6 goals, 10 assists and 16 points, and the Stars are producing enough despite Matt Duchene being out on injured reserve and Esa Lindell joining him there.
Columbus is 5-6-0 at minus-0.82, scoring 2.45 goals per game and allowing 3.27. Kent Johnson leads the Blue Jackets with 7 goals and 11 points, and Zach Werenski has 9 assists, but Columbus plays long stretches without threatening, and its 2.45 goals per game is a hard ceiling to bring into the league's most structured defensive building.
One Columbus edge is real. The Blue Jackets win 54.5 percent of their faceoffs, second only to Dallas itself at 56.7 percent, so the puck-possession battle starts closer to even than most of Dallas's games.
Key Factors
Jake Oettinger is the center of this game. He has a 1.69 goals-against average, a .917 save percentage and three shutouts, and Columbus counters with Jet Greaves at 3.29 and .884 or Cam Talbot at 2.83 and .894. Against a team scoring 2.45 per game, Oettinger's floor turns Dallas's modest offense into a winning margin more often than not. The penalty kill seals it.
Dallas kills 93.5 percent of its penalties, the best mark on Saturday's slate, and Columbus's power play converts just 13.3 percent, so the Blue Jackets' most likely route to a second and third goal is effectively closed. Dallas's own power play, at 20.0 percent, faces a Columbus kill at 74.3 percent, a smaller but real edge the other way. The honest counterpoint is Dallas's scoring.
A team at 2.62 goals per game laying a puck line lives on thin margins, and the Stars have lost two straight, both tight. If Columbus gets an early goal and Talbot plays to his better career standard, Dallas can win this game 2-1 and still fail to cover. The cover case rests on Columbus needing to chase late against the league's best defensive structure, which is where empty-net and late third-period goals come from.
Dallas defends better than any team on the slate, its goaltender is in shutout form, and Columbus does not score enough to keep a chasing game close late. The margin comes from structure, not fireworks. Take the Dallas Stars -1.5 at +145.
Game Information
| Date | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 7:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | NHL |
| Venue | American Airlines Center |
| Spread | Dallas Stars -1.5 |
| Total | 5.5 |
| Moneyline | Dallas Stars -185 |
More Picks This Week
More on Columbus Blue Jackets and Dallas Stars
NHL Props and Futures Boards
Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.