Philadelphia Flyers vs Calgary Flames Prediction: Best Bet for Sunday

Philadelphia scores 2.17 goals per game, the thinnest attack on the Sunday slate, and Calgary's power play converts 30.0 percent of its chances at the other end. Both teams leak goals and both teams are missing important forwards, and the Saddledome gets the kind of low-margin game where one steady goaltender usually decides everything.

The Matchup

Calgary is 7-9-1, scoring 2.47 goals per game and allowing 3.53, a -1.06 differential from a team that wins its home games and loses its way on the road. The Flames are 5-4-0 at home and 6-3-1 over their last ten, so the Saddledome version of this team is the respectable one. Joel Farabee leads Calgary with 6 goals and 16 points, and Matt Coronato has 11 assists, modest totals that tell the truth about a 2.47-goal attack.

Philadelphia is 4-10-4, scoring 2.17 per game and allowing 3.33 for a -1.17 differential, the weakest scoring line on the Sunday slate. Matvei Michkov leads the Flyers with 10 goals, and Trevor Zegras has 14 points on 4 goals and 10 assists. Philadelphia is 1-6-1 on the road, with three points from eight trips, and the road games follow the same script: the Flyers hang around at 2.17 goals a night, which is another way of saying they hang around until they lose.

Key Factors

Calgary's power play is the sharpest single unit in this game. The Flames convert 30.0 percent with the extra man, and Philadelphia kills 80.0 percent of its penalties, solid but not built for a unit converting at that rate. The other end is just as lopsided: Philadelphia converts 16.4 percent on its power play against a Calgary kill of 83.0 percent. The Flyers score 2.17 a night at even strength and get no rescue from their power play, which is how a team ends up with ten losses in eighteen games.

The crease leans Calgary because of the backup. Devin Cooley has a 2.69 goals-against average and a .914 save percentage for the Flames, far steadier than Dustin Wolf at 3.75 and .869. Dan Vladar is at 3.21 and .883 for Philadelphia, and Joseph Woll is at 3.12 and .899, respectable numbers on a team that gives its goaltenders almost no margin.

Calgary is missing Jonathan Huberdeau, who is out today on injured reserve after hip surgery, and Connor Zary, who is out after knee surgery. Kevin Bahl is day-to-day with a lower body injury and Brennan Othmann is day-to-day with an upper body injury. Keep an eye on whether Bahl plays before placing a bet. Philadelphia is missing Rasmus Ristolainen, who is out on injured reserve with a hand injury, and Nikita Grebenkin, who is out on injured reserve with a back injury.

Philadelphia is the market favorite here, and its case is Michkov, two steadier goaltenders than Wolf, and a Calgary team that allows 3.53 a night. It fails on the only number that travels worse than Calgary's defense: 2.17 goals per game, scored by a team that has won once in eight road games. Calgary does not have to be good. The Flames have to score three at home against the thinnest attack in the game, with the better power play and the hotter backup behind them.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.