Anaheim Ducks vs Calgary Flames Prediction: Best Bet for Friday

Anaheim scores 3.60 goals per game and Calgary scores 2.44, yet the Flames are the home favorite, propped up by the best penalty kill in this game and a 5-3-0 home record. The Ducks have won five of eight on the road, and the Saddledome gets a scoring gap the standings alone cannot explain.

The Matchup

Anaheim is 7-7-1, scoring 3.60 goals per game and allowing 3.80, a -0.20 differential that makes Ducks games the most open on the Friday slate. The Ducks have won two straight, gone 6-3-1 over their last ten, and built a 5-3-0 road record, so the Saddledome setting is not the obstacle it usually is. Anaheim gives games back at its own end, and that is the tax on everything its attack earns.

Calgary is 7-8-1, scoring 2.44 per game and allowing 3.44 for a -1.00 differential, the weakest scoring line in this game by more than a goal. Joel Farabee leads the Flames with 5 goals and 15 points, and Matt Coronato has 11 assists, and those modest totals tell the story: Calgary's leading scorer has five goals in sixteen games. The Flames are 5-3-0 at home and have also gone 6-3-1 over their last ten, so the home record is real even when the attack is not.

Calgary's absences land exactly where the Flames are already thin. Jonathan Huberdeau is on injured reserve after hip surgery and Connor Zary is out after knee surgery, two forwards a 2.44-goal team cannot spare. Anaheim lists Troy Terry on injured reserve after hip surgery, with Ian Moore and Ryan Poehling on injured reserve beside him.

Key Factors

The favorite case for Calgary is built on structure, and it deserves a straight hearing. The Flames kill 84.0 percent of their penalties, the best unit in this game, and convert 29.7 percent on the power play against an Anaheim kill of 74.6 percent.

Calgary is also 5-3-0 at home, and Anaheim allows 3.80 goals per game in front of Lukas Dostal, who sits at a 3.56 goals-against average and a .872 save percentage. If the Flames win the special teams battle and get the ordinary home game they usually get, they win this.

It fails on the one thing Calgary cannot manufacture: goals at even strength. Anaheim's power play converts 38.0 percent, the most dangerous unit in this game, and even an 84.0 percent kill has to survive it repeatedly against a team that scores 3.60 a night.

Calgary's crease is a split decision rather than an edge, with Dustin Wolf at 3.71 and .870 and Devin Cooley at 2.69 and .914, and the Flames have leaned on both. Brennan Othmann is day-to-day with an upper body injury for Calgary. Keep an eye on whether Othmann plays before placing a bet.

Anaheim does not need to fix its defense for one night. The Ducks need their ordinary road game, five wins in eight tries, against a home team whose best forward has five goals and whose two missing forwards were supposed to fix exactly that.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.