Philadelphia Flyers vs Vancouver Canucks Prediction: Best Bet for Monday

Vancouver allows 4.58 goals per game and has won three of nineteen, and Thatcher Demko is out after hip surgery, leaving a crease that has given up goals in bunches all season. Philadelphia scores only 2.17 a night, so Monday asks whether the Flyers' thin attack is finally facing a defense generous enough to feed it.

The Matchup

Vancouver is 3-15-1, scoring 2.89 goals per game and allowing 4.58, a -1.68 differential that is the worst in this game by half a goal and the story of the Canucks' season. Elias Pettersson leads Vancouver with 19 points on 4 goals and 15 assists, and Brock Boeser has 7 goals. The building has offered no shelter: the Canucks are 1-7-0 at Rogers Arena, so home ice has mostly meant watching the same defensive problems from closer seats.

Philadelphia is 4-10-4, scoring 2.17 per game and allowing 3.33 for a -1.17 differential, and nobody would confuse the Flyers with a good team. Matvei Michkov leads Philadelphia with 10 goals, and Trevor Zegras has 14 points on 4 goals and 10 assists. What the Flyers have that Vancouver does not is a floor: they allow 3.33 a night instead of 4.58, and their losses are usually arguments about scoring rather than routs. Their road record, at 1-6-1, is the honest warning on the page.

Key Factors

Vancouver's penalty kill decides how this game breathes. The Canucks kill 63.5 percent of their penalties and have already allowed 23 power play goals, and even a Philadelphia power play converting only 16.4 percent gets live chances against a kill that broken. Vancouver converts 20.7 percent with the extra man against a Philadelphia kill of 80.0 percent, so the Canucks can answer on special teams. They just have to survive their own penalties first, and survival has not been their skill.

The crease gap is the widest on the Monday slate. Thatcher Demko is out tonight. He is on injured reserve after hip surgery, with a return date of December 21. Leevi Merilainen has a 3.52 goals-against average and a .889 save percentage in his place, and Kevin Lankinen sits at 6.03 and .808, numbers that end arguments about who starts.

Philadelphia's Dan Vladar is at 3.21 and .883, and Joseph Woll is at 3.12 and .899, ordinary goaltending that looks steady next to Vancouver's. Tom Willander is day-to-day for Vancouver with a lower body injury. Keep an eye on whether Willander plays before placing a bet. Filip Chytil is on injured reserve for Vancouver with an upper body injury and a return date of November 9, and Philadelphia is missing Rasmus Ristolainen, who is out on injured reserve with a hand injury, and Nikita Grebenkin, who is out on injured reserve with a back injury.

The Vancouver case is Pettersson and Boeser at home against a road team with one win in eight trips and the thinnest scoring line on the slate. It fails because Vancouver's problems are bigger than Philadelphia's: 4.58 goals allowed, a 63.5 percent kill, one home win, and no Demko. The Flyers do not need a good offensive night by league standards. They need an ordinary one, against the one defense that hands ordinary nights to everyone.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.